Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench
Gold & Silver Prices in

Economists never know what the weather “was” until economic reports come out!

IMG Auteur
Published : April 08th, 2017
311 words - Reading time : 0 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Opinions and Analysis

On Wednesday, Econoday was singing the praises of ADP’s payroll predictions. Let’s take a look., especially in light of revisions.

Highlights

The March employment report may not prove as impressive as February or January but it still looks to be very strong, based on ADP’s 263,000 estimate for private payrolls. Details in the ADP report include a strong 49,000 gain for construction and a 30,000 increase for manufacturing. Professional & business services are another strong positive, up 57,000. This report will ease concern that heavy weather in the mid-month sample week for March may skew Friday’s report lower.

Recent History

ADP’s employment estimate not only predicted strength in both February and January payrolls but accurately predicted outlier strength.

Today’s Job Report

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down from +238,000 to +216,000, and the change for February was revised down from +235,000 to +219,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 38,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 178,000 per month.

ADP vs BLS

Month ADP BLS Miss
January 246,000 216,000 30,000
February 298,000 219,000 79,000
March 263,000 98,000 165,000
3-month Average 269,000 177,667 91,333

ADP no longer looks so glowing.

Today Econoday had this to say:

“Throw ADP out, it was the weather in March! Or at least the Category 3 storm that swept the Northeast may explain a much weaker-than-expected 98,000 increase in March nonfarm payrolls. This compares with Econoday’s consensus for 175,000 and a low estimate of 125,000” says Econoday.

The big storm hit during the sample week of the employment report and apparently delayed new hiring, or at least that will be the takeaway from the report,” added Econoday.

Economists vs Weather

Time and time again, economists never know what the weather “was” until economic reports come out!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Source : mishtalk.com
Data and Statistics for these countries : Georgia | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Georgia | All
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Comment this article
>Follow all commentairies
You must be logged in to comment an article8000 characters max.
Log in or Sign up
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Debate Over Electric Trucks: Let’s Get It On
25 AprJerry82
Thanks Mish, this was a very insightful and thought provoking piece. I've often heard concerns about the weight of these new electric trucks and th...
No, The Junior Mining Stocks Are Not About To Implode - Dave Kranzler
25 AprJerry821
Thank you Dave for this excellent article. I agree with your well thought out critiques that point to junior miners being just fine. Relying on tha...
Gold Bullion Erases $10 Bounce Despite French Election, N.Korea Ris...
25 AprJerry82
I don't know how much I'd trust the listed GLD holdings. I always found GLD's structure to be a bit strange. They so famously claim that they are 1...
The Story of Gold Money, Past, Present and Future, by Edwin Walter ...
18 AprJerry82
Thank you for this very thought provoking piece Nathan. I have not read any literature from Edwin Walter Kemmerer before but I am inclined to pick ...
Gold Prices Slip $10 After Breaking Downtrend as UK's May Seeks Bre...
18 AprSam Maher3
"That left the GLD gold ETF needing a 2017 high of 849 tonnes in bullion backing." I frequently see you make these claims on GLD's holding...
Bombs Away!
17 Aprprljr-1
James tribe owns trump.
Krunch Time for Korean Krackpot Despot, Kim Jong-Un: Missile Crisis...
17 Aprprljr1
Unfortunately the world is not run by Christians, well except for the useful idiot ones.
Krunch Time for Korean Krackpot Despot, Kim Jong-Un: Missile Crisis...
15 Aprkevthorne1
I read from this that it is the USA that is 'a threat to the entire world'. How many times have we heard this - 'country X is a threat to the w...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS