The wide discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for a third month.
Jobs vs. Employment Discussion
Before diving
into the details, it is important to understand limits on data, and how
the BLS measures jobs in the establishment survey vs. employment in the
household survey.
Establishment Survey: If you work one hour that counts as a job. There is no difference between one hour and 50 hours.
Establishment Survey: If you work multiple jobs you are counted twice. Neither the BLS nor ADP weed out duplicate social security numbers.
Household Survey: If you work one hour or 80 you are employed.
Household Survey:
If you work a total of 35 hours you are considered a full time
employee. If you work 25 hours at one job and 10 hours at another, you
are a fulltime employee.
Following are numbers from today's BLS jobs releases.
December 2013 vs. December Prior Years
| Category | DEC 2008 | DEC 2009 | DEC 2010 | DEC 2011 | DEC 2012 | DEC 2013 |
|---|
| Employed Household | 143,369 | 138,013 | 139,266 | 140,836 | 143,212 | 144,586 |
| Jobs Establishment | 134,425 | 129,373 | 130,395 | 132,498 | 134,691 | 136,877 |
Monthly Averages December 2013 vs. December Prior Years
| Category | DEC 2009 | DEC 2010 | DEC 2011 | DEC 2012 | DEC 2013 |
|---|
| Yoy Change Household | (5,356) | 1,253 | 1,570 | 2,376 | 1,374 |
| Yoy Change establishment | (5,052) | 1,022 | 2,103 | 2,193 | 2,186 |
| Monthly Average Household | -446 | 104 | 131 | 198 | 115 |
| Monthly Average Establishment | -421 | 85 | 175 | 183 | 182 |
Notice how closely in sync the household survey has been to the establishment survey in terms of average gains or losses. A divergence developed in 2013.
Here is the data I posted last month (I did not check for revisions).
November 2013 vs. November Prior Years
| Category | Nov 2008 | Nov 2009 | Nov 2010 | Nov 2011 | Nov 2012 | Nov 2013 |
|---|
| Employed Household | 144,100 | 138,665 | 139,046 | 140,771 | 143,277 | 144,386 |
| Jobs Establishment | 135,130 | 129,593 | 130,300 | 132,268 | 134,472 | 136,765 |
Monthly Averages November 2013 vs. November Prior Years
| Category | Nov 2009 | Nov 2010 | Nov 2011 | Nov 2012 | Nov 2013 |
|---|
| Yoy Change Household | (5,435) | 381 | 1,725 | 2,506 | 1,109 |
| Yoy Change establishment | (5,537) | 707 | 1,968 | 2,204 | 2,293 |
| Monthly Average Household | -453 | 32 | 144 | 209 | 92 |
| Monthly Average Establishment | -461 | 59 | 164 | 184 | 191 |
Last month the discrepancy between reported employment and reported jobs was 191,000 - 92,000 = 99,000.
This month the discrepancy between reported employment and reported jobs is 182,000 - 115,000 = 67,000.
These discrepancies started in 2013.
I asked the BLS to take multiple social security numbers into consideration. They cannot because all they have is raw counts. ADP could, but wouldn't, citing privacy issues.
However, there are no privacy issues. A program would be trivial to write, but most likely one would not even have to do that. A sort utility extracting and counting duplicate social security numbers would suffice.
I believe Obamacare is the reason for the discrepancy.
Obamacare Effect
Prior to Obamacare
34 hours worked = 1
parttime job household survey
34 hours worked = 1 job establishment survey
Enter obamacare
Person cut back to 25 hours and takes a second job for 10 hours
Here is the new math
25 + 10 = 1
fulltime job on the household survey.
25 + 10 = 2 jobs on the establishment survey.
In my example, the household survey totals up all the hours and says,
voilla! (35 hours = full time). So a few extra hours that people pick up
working 2 part time jobs now throws someone into full time status –
thus no surge in part-time employment, but there is a surge in jobs.
Establishment Survey Jobs Surge Ended This Month
Interestingly, the surge in jobs in the establishment survey ended today. See
Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls +74,000 vs. 205,000 Expected; Unemployment Rate 6.7% as Labor Force Shrinks by 347,000.
Two Possibilities
- Perhaps today's weak job report is a one-time thing. Some economists blamed the weather.
- The other possibility is the Obamacare effect has mostly played out, and Establishment Survey results going forward will not get a multiple job boost for the rest of the year.
If the Obamacare multiple job surge has indeed played out, monthly establishment survey job gains are going to be weaker than most expect for 2014.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
