Earlier this month, the German Bundesrat voted to ban new gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles from EU
roads starting in 2030.
Days later, the German Transport Minister Calls Internal Combustion Ban
“Utter Nonsense”.
Let’s take a look at both stories.
German Government Votes to Ban Internal Combustion Engines by 2030
Members of the German government have just passed a resolution to ban the
sale of internal combustion engines in the European Union by 2030. Only
zero-emissions vehicles would be allowed on the market after that time,
according to the resolution.
The resolution was passed in Germany’s Bundesrat, the nation’s legislative
body representing the sixteen German states, with across-the-aisle support.
The resolution implores the EU Commission to ban the sale of new vehicles
powered by gasoline or diesel internal-combustion engines starting in 2030;
vehicles sold before the ban would still be allowed, but after 2030, automakers
would be banned from selling new fossil fuel-powered vehicles in the EU.
The Bundesrat has no direct authority over the EU, and cannot demand
changes to the EU’s transportation regulations. But with the largest
government and most powerful economy in the EU, German government decisions
exert huge influence over the EU and the United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe.
Partly in response to recent emissions scandals, European automakers are
expressing a newfound interest in electric vehicles and other zero-emissions
drivetrains. At the Paris Motor Show just a few days ago, BMW, Mercedes-Benz,
Renault, Volkswagen and numerous other automakers all showed concept cars and
future products that focus on emissions-free driving, whether via
battery-electric or some other form of propulsion.
German Transport Minister Calls Internal Combustion Ban “Utter
Nonsense”
According to German wire service DPA, as translated by Forbes contributor Bertel Schmitt, Dobrint called the
plan “utter nonsense.” Dobrindt, whose office would need to approve the
proposal, said that “a complete end of the internal combustion engine from
2030 on would be totally unrealistic.”
The plan was put forth in Germany’s Bundesrat, the country’s legislative
body representing the sixteen German states, and won support across the
political aisle. While the Bundesrat does not exert authority over the
European Union, German government edicts have a strong influence on the EU
and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
In other words, the Bundesrat’s vote to ban the sale of new internal
combustion engine vehicles after 2030 has no legislative teeth—it’s an
ideological move. But Dobrint still doesn’t sound like he’ll allow the bill
to pass his desk.
End of Gas-Powered Autos?
I suggest it is quite likely. There does not even have to be an outright
ban. For the idea to work, some things need to happen. For example, cars will
need to get far more miles out of a charge, and/or a battery changing station
mechanism available.
Alternatively, people could swap one car for another via self-driving Uber
or Lyft vehicles. It’s too early to say how this will shake out precisely,
but the industry is clearly headed in this direction.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
