Pretending Period is Over
The refugee crisis in Europe got more interesting this week.
Within hours of Brussels giving the green light on Merkel’s ill-advised
deal with Turkey, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked sacked Ahmet
Davutoglu, the prime minister who negotiated the deal with German chancellor
Angela Merkel.
For details see EU Approves Deal With Turkey (Then All Hell
Breaks Loose).
Then on Friday, Erdogan announced he would not fully implement the deal
Davutoglu negotiated with Merkel.
The EU can no longer pretend that Erdogan has any intention of reforming
Turkey.
Does the EU have a choice? The Financial Times says no. I say yes.
Erdogan Rejects EU Demands
Please consider Recep Tayyip Erdogan Rejects EU Demands to Reform Terror Law.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has rejected Brussels’ demands
for an overhaul of an anti-terror law, suggesting he is prepared to abandon a
deal EU leaders credit with curbing the flow of migrants.
Brussels has requested that Ankara make the change before the EU delivers
visa-free travel for 80m Turks, one of the biggest concessions of the
migration deal.
But Mr Erdogan insisted on Friday the legislation was necessary at a time
when his country is being targeted by Islamist and Kurdish militants and said
he was not prepared to change it.
Merkel Bows to Erdogan “Prince of Europe”
The anti-terror law in question gives Erdogan the ability to label anyone
a terrorist for the flimsiest of reasons.
Erdogan has arrested journalists and academics, essentially anyone who
publicly disagrees with him.
But Merkel does not care. She is even willing to kiss Erdogan’s feet in
his newly commissioned golden throne.
The Spectator explains How Recep Erdogan Became the Most Powerful Man in Europe.
Erdogan is a patient Islamist. He used his power to tighten his grip and
consolidate power behind one party — and one man. He even commissioned a new
golden throne to sit on. The putative caliph set about taking Turkey in an
all too predictable direction — consolidating power around himself by taking
it away from the military and judiciary and stifling domestic dissent
whenever he could.
The extent to which Erdogan has been able to take Turkey backwards is a
modern tragedy. When corruption allegations emerged around his immediate
circle just over two years ago, he swiftly banned YouTube and Twitter,
stuffed the ensuing investigatory-commission with members of his own party
and dismissed the investigations as a ‘coup attempt’ by people serving
‘foreign powers’.
Didn’t Erdogan worry that his authoritarianism would disqualify him
outright [from EU membership]?
He gambled that the EU, for all of its pious words, could be bought off
later. In a single night in January 2014, he removed and replaced some 350
police officers. His party gave itself new powers permitting domestic
espionage on banks and companies on matters relating to ‘foreign
intelligence’.
By the end of 2013, Erdogan said he’d take no more lectures from Brussels
and that he ‘sincerely expected the EU, which sharply criticises its member
countries, should criticise itself and write its own progress report’. In
March he seized control of Zaman, until then Turkey’s
highest–circulation newspaper. And he has taken action against thousands of
citizens for the offence of insulting the president. Last month, a Turkish
man was arrested for insulting Erdogan by asking police for directions to the
zoo.
When a late-night comedy show in Germany pointed to the absurdity of a
German law forbidding insults against foreign leaders by attacking Erdogan,
Turkey demanded that Berlin acted. Erdogan was calling Angela Merkel to heel.
And successfully: she approved prosecution of the offending comedian.
Turkey is home to 2.7 million Syrian refugees — a fact which Erdogan is
treating like being in possession of a loaded gun.
And so the EU has accepted Turkey’s abominable treatment of Kurds. It has
ignored the ongoing illegal occupation of north Cyprus. And it has ignored
every single one of its own putative ‘criteria’. In trying to avoid millions
more migrants, the EU has opened the doors to 75 million Turks.
In private, Erdogan must be amazed at just how much he can wrangle. The
worse his behaviour, the greater his clout in Europe. He can send German
police to arrest German comedians whose jokes he dislikes. He can instruct
the EU to delay its ‘progress reports’ on Turkey to a time that better suits
his electoral purposes. A few weeks ago, a leaked transcript of a
conversation showed Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European
Commission, pleading Erdogan to consider that ‘we have treated you like a
prince in Brussels’.
Is There a Choice?
The Financial Times view is Europe has Limited Options Over the Turkey Visa Deal.
Two months ago, the EU agreed to pay Ankara €6bn to help meet the cost of
sheltering tens of thousands of additional migrants on its soil. Now,
Brussels is offering Turkey a substantial political prize in the form of
visa-free travel to Europe for its 80m citizens. Given the growing
authoritarianism of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this proposal,
which the European Commission unveiled on Wednesday, is controversial. But
Europe’s pressing need to settle the migrant crisis means it has little
choice but to sign this unpalatable deal.
Europe should hold its nose and sign up to the pact it has struck with
Ankara. Whatever its faults, Turkey is at least meeting its side of the
bargain, managing the numbers coming across the Aegean. After committing so
many mistakes in this crisis, the EU has little alternative but to press on
as best it can with its difficult eastern neighbour.
Crazy Proposal
One does not grant visa access to 75-80 million Turkish citizens hoping to
stop the flow of a million refugees.
The Financial Times says “the visas will be granted to Turks for three
months and there is no reason to believe that large numbers will overstay
their welcome.”
What? How the hell could the Financial Times possibly know?
Turn Back the Boats
The EU should thank its lucky stars that Erdogan will not uphold his end
of the deal and gratefully cancel it.
Coupled with the cancellation (for which the EU can blame Erdogan), the EU
should announce an Australia-type plan forcing back all boats, while
arresting and prosecuting smugglers.
Call out the military to enforce the borders. That’s what Australia did.
Please consider Tony Abbott is Right about Immigration – and Turning Back
Boats.
For many years, Australia has been turning away boats filled with
migrants. From a remove, this looks cold–hearted — a nation built by
immigrants showing no compassion for others who want a better life. But it is
precisely because Australia is an immigrant nation that it understands the
situation: if you let the boats land, more people come. People traffickers
will be encouraged, migrants will be swindled, and their bodies will wash up
on your shores. Any country serious about immigration needs a more effective
and robust approach.
Sensible Approach
Turning back the boats may be harder for the EU than it is for Australia,
but it can be done.
Making a deal with the devil then letting the devil renege on a critical
piece of his end is not a viable option.
Accepting Erdogan’s new demands would do four things, all unsavory.
- Open up Europe to 80 million Turkish citizens, all with
an axe to grind.
- Make Erdogan the prince of Europe.
- Accept Erdogan’s role as dictator of Turkey.
- Subject the EU to further demands as Turkey could
unleash the refugees at any point in the future.
Please pay particular attention to point number 4.
On March 7 I noted Devil Demands and Receives More Concessions from Merkel: In
Bed with a Dictator.
Here we are again. The devil wants still more concessions. This time, the
devil demands the EU accept Erdogan as the price of Europe and dictator of
Turkey.
This is a deal the EU would be crazy to accept.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
