Reader Andrea who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...

Hi Mish,

Here is a link to a web site that produces charting polls for Italian elections.

Click on the tab "I quattro poli". It shows a polynomial regression of the four major political parties.

Just for your info, a short translation of the legenda: Centro-Sinistra is the Center-Left coalition, Centro-Destra is the Center-Right coalition, Centro is of course Center (actually it is the coalition more supportive of Monti and actually seeking to have him for a second term as PM), and M5S is the usual acronym for Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement).

As you can see, Center-Left is for the moment the clear winner and M5S has now overcome Center-Right. I still think that a stall in Senate is likely anyway (which in some way could favor Monti for a second term as PM).

The other remarkable thing is that the people declaring today that they will not vote is as higher than 40% (some polls give it close to 50%).

This weekend the primary elections of Center-left took place: Pierluigi Bersani and Matteo Renzi scored first and second and a second round will be needed to choose between the 2, as nobody reached 50% in the first round. Bersani is the current secretary of the party and Matteo Renzi is the mayor of Florence and a kind of young outsider.

Best regards,

AC

Top Four Parties

Polling data appears to be from mid-October, not June as shown on the slidebar.

A deadlock in parliament following the next election may mean re-appointment of Mario Monti but the surge for the Five Star Movement is encouraging.

For more on M5S and founder Beppe Grillo, please see Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement.

Main Rules for the Five Star Movement

·         Not be an elected politician prior to 5 Stelle

·         Commit to stay in charge for no longer than 2 terms

·         Commit to take a minimum salary and give the rest back to the community

·         Post a public platform on the internet

·         Be willing to hold a public debate on the platform

Beppe Grillo's personal position, not a mandate for the Five Star Movement is "Get out of the Euro and default on debt".

From Andrea in the above link ...

Five Star Movement candidates have been able to get almost everywhere between 10 and 20% of votes, sometimes even more, all without a single minute of TV advertising or a single advertising page on newspapers.

The movement has simply spread via the internet, social networks and public meetings around the country. The message sent by their success is clearly: we are fed up with this corrupted, inefficient and incompetent political class.

The most important thing for the future months is the last stance Beppe Grillo has decided to take just before elections: get out of the Euro and default on debt. This position has been strongly criticized the rest of the political class and mainstream media, but the fact that Beppe Grillo has been breaking this “Taboo” and that there was a strong reaction by political and media environments, has finally opened the debate in Italy and has certainly made people to start seriously think about it, despite the fact that Italy so far had no financial help from the EU or IMF.