Andrea who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ...
Here is a link to a web site that produces charting polls for Italian elections.
Click on the tab "I quattro poli". It shows a
polynomial regression of the four major political parties.
Just for your info, a short translation of the legenda:
Centro-Sinistra is the Center-Left coalition,
Centro-Destra is the Center-Right coalition, Centro
is of course Center (actually it is the coalition more supportive of Monti and actually seeking to have him for a second term
as PM), and M5S is the usual acronym for Movimento
5 Stelle (Five Star Movement).
As you can see, Center-Left is for the moment the clear winner and M5S has
now overcome Center-Right. I still think that a stall in Senate is likely
anyway (which in some way could favor Monti for a
second term as PM).
The other remarkable thing is that the people declaring
today that they will not vote is as higher than 40% (some polls give
it close to 50%).
This weekend the primary elections of Center-left took place: Pierluigi Bersani and Matteo Renzi scored first and
second and a second round will be needed to choose between the 2, as nobody reached
50% in the first round. Bersani is the current
secretary of the party and Matteo Renzi is the mayor of Florence and a kind of young
Top Four Parties
Polling data appears to be from mid-October, not June as shown on the slidebar.
A deadlock in parliament following the next election may mean re-appointment
of Mario Monti but the surge for the Five Star
Movement is encouraging.
For more on M5S and founder Beppe Grillo, please see Six Reasons
Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement.
Main Rules for the Five Star
Not be an
elected politician prior to 5 Stelle
stay in charge for no longer than 2 terms
take a minimum salary and give the rest back to the community
public platform on the internet
willing to hold a public debate on the platform
Beppe Grillo's personal
position, not a mandate for the Five Star Movement is "Get out of the
Euro and default on debt".
From Andrea in the above link ...
Five Star Movement candidates have been
able to get almost everywhere between 10 and 20% of votes, sometimes even
more, all without a single minute of TV advertising or a single advertising
page on newspapers.
The movement has simply spread via the internet, social networks and public
meetings around the country. The message sent by their success is clearly: we
are fed up with this corrupted, inefficient and incompetent political class.
The most important thing for the future months is the last stance Beppe Grillo has decided to
take just before elections: get out of the Euro and default on debt. This
position has been strongly criticized the rest of the political class and
mainstream media, but the fact that Beppe Grillo has been breaking this “Taboo” and
that there was a strong reaction by political and media environments, has
finally opened the debate in Italy and has certainly made people to start
seriously think about it, despite the fact that Italy so far had no financial
help from the EU or IMF.