RESEARCH BLOG
Last week on our new Research blog, Bron Suchecki offered more meaty articles
for those interested in digging deeper into current thinking on gold.
In Today: War on Cash. Tomorrow: War on Gold? he discusses
the scenario that foresees central banks ban or punitively tax cash deposits.
A number of commentators believe this would be positive for gold, arguing
people will buy the precious metal instead of holding bank deposits, and/or
use gold transactionally, which will increase demand for gold and its
price.
But Bron is not quite so convinced.
If you've ever thought that forecasting the gold price was more luck than
judgement, then check out Gold Price Forecasting, the Hard Core Academic Way. Odds
are you've never seen a prediction that uses the following formula to compute
the gold's next moves!
The long and the short of this article is that it's incredibly difficult
to take into account all the "underlying variables" involved. And
therein lies a warning about the next talking head you see on TV explaining
gold will go up or down because of their view about one single variable they
think explains all.
For more of Bron's insights, click here.
