"Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen.
Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves."
Here are a couple of facts one needs to remember when attempting to
decipher yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and
press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:
- The Federal Reserve Board is not part of the U.S.
government.
- The Fed's dual mandate is a) "maximum sustainable
employment" and b) "price stability." Nowhere do we hear
the term "stock market" related to the dual mandate.
Given those two facts, in all of the noise of yesterday's 2% drop in
stocks everywhere within sixty seconds of Jerome Powell's revelation
of "3 versus 2" (rate hike next year), where was it ordained that
it was his job to juice the stock market?
This morning on CNBC, the panel was so completely obsessed with what
Powell said and how he said it and how he should have said it and when
he should have said it that they totally forgot the basics of the Fed-101.
Since the last great Fed Chairman Paul Volker retired, three consecutive
Fed chairs have done everything possible to levitate stock prices. After the
Crash of '87, the Working Group on Capital Markets was formed as a means of
avoiding similar crashes by way of a legion of traders whose mission is to
monitor stocks 24 hours a day. While it was a worthwhile stabilizing tool in
highly emotional market swoons such as the Challenger Disaster, 9/11 and the
Great Financial Crisis (GFC), what began as an "emergency tool"
evolved into a "political tool."
But what it always was, and remains to this day, is a
"banker's tool," because it is the banks that control the Fed and
the banks control the markets—all markets. So when I am listening to
this sycophantic debate over the FOMC release, I have to ask myself whether
the farm worker in Des Moines or the social worker in San Francisco cares a
hoot about Powell or the Fed or stocks.
If the U.S. Congress bears the responsibility of creating the Fed and has
granted them the dual mandate listed above, they should be applauding Jerome
Powell for truly being data-dependent and recognizing weakness starting to
creep into the data, making the "3 versus 2" decision a means of
fulfilling his mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability.
After all, it was on Oct. 3 that the CNBC crowd were clinking glasses in
celebration of yet another all-time high in the S&P 500! To the
members of that CNBC panel, who were whining and sniveling and assailing the
Fed, I say, "for shame!" for behaving in such an avaricious,
self-serving and pitiable manner.
As for tactics, the precious metals were sucked down in a vortex of algorithmic
tantrums along with stocks and base metals but this morning, we need look
only to the USD Index, where we see a 0.61% drop back below 96.
It was once told to me by a very old and very wise former bond trader that
comparing the intellectual capital of the stock market to the bond market is
like comparing a kindergarten child to the average adult. He further said
that comparing the bond market to the currency market is like comparing an
average adult to Albert Einstein.
The FOREX markets are the most sophisticated markets on the planet, as
they take the collective global assimilation of data and instantaneously
assign it to pricing assets. So it is with great fascination that I note
while stocks collapsed yesterday on fears of a hawkish, "too tight"
Fed policy, the U.S. dollar is crashing this morning, which means the FOREX
markets viewed the FOMC policy statement as "dovish."
As an investor, I would rather trust the intellectual efficiency of the
FOREX markets than the boorish behavior of the stock markets to provide my
guidance for all decisions moving through year-end. The weak dollar is
screaming to us that the Fed is indeed aware of the global slowdown and that
they will eventually blink. The reason they will eventually blink goes back
to point 1 in the two facts introduced at the onset of this missive. The Fed
is owned by other banks, not U.S. citizens nor the government, so when you
are reading or listening to anything emanating from them, it is
imperative that you understand that they do nothing that in any way
will undermine the safety, survival, and ultimate prosperity of their member
banks. They act for themselves and themselves alone.
In light of the events laid out in this missive, I continue to look for an
upside resolution of the current battle for gold, in the $1,250-1,260
resistance zone, and silver in the $14.80-15.00 resistance zone. Coeur
Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE) pulled back from over $4.70 to under $4.25 during
yesterday's post FOMC tantrum, and the SLV April $13 calls gave back a little
profit from our $1.00 entry level, having closed at $1.22. I will add to both
if they open anywhere near where they closed but suffice it to say that I see
new highs in both by year-end.
The last day for tax-loss selling is Dec. 27, so I will be preparing a
list of tax-loss weakness candidates for rebounds in early 2019. I will be
tweeting the list out on Boxing Day, with a follow-up e-mail the following
day. The list of casualties is long and bloodied this year, and while it has
in recent years been relegated to resource stocks, this year it is crypto,
cannabis, energy and blue chips, with the biggest top-to-bottom crashes in
the market darlings of early 2018, crypto and cannabis.
Exploration stocks like Aben
Resources Ltd. (ABN:TSX.V; ABNAF:OTCQB) and Great
Bear Resources Ltd. (GBR:TSX.V; GTBDF:OTC) have given up either all of a
substantial portion of earlier 2018 gains, but if I had to take a tax loss on
either of the two, the former should be sold and the latter should be bought.
I have been thoroughly unimpressed with the way ABN's news flow completely
disappeared after the glory holes reported on Aug. 8, but remain mightily
impressed with the continued great results from the Dixie project. (I
currently own both issues and am down on ABN and up on GBR.)
This will probably be the last missive until Christmas so I wish all you
who celebrate a Merry Christmas, and good health and wealth to you and your
families.
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