|
Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham
“concludes that the world has undergone a permanent
"paradigm shift" in which the number of people on planet Earth has
finally and permanently outstripped the planet's ability to support us.
Specifically, Grantham says, the phenomenon of ever-more
humans using a finite supply of natural resources cannot continue
forever--and the prices of metals, hydrocarbons (oil), and food are now
beginning to reflect that.
In other words, Grantham says, it is different this time.
Grantham believes that the trend of the last 100 years, in
which the prices of almost all major commodities have steadily declined, is
permanently over. And from here on in, humans will be competing more--and
paying more--for ever-scarcer resources…
Until about 1800, our species had no safety margin and
lived, like other animals, up to the limit of the food supply, ebbing and
flowing in population.
· From about 1800 on the use of hydrocarbons allowed
for an explosion in energy use, in food supply, and, through the creation of
surpluses, a dramatic increase in wealth and scientific progress.
· Since 1800, the population has surged from 800
million to 7 billion, on its way to an estimated 8 billion, at minimum.
· The rise
in population, the ten-fold increase in wealth in developed countries, and
the current explosive growth in developing countries have eaten rapidly into
our finite resources of hydrocarbons and metals, fertilizer, available land,
and water.
· Now, despite a massive increase in fertilizer use,
the growth in crop yields per acre has declined from 3.5% in the 1960s to
1.2% today. There is little productive new land to bring on and, as people
get richer, they eat more grain-intensive meat. Because the population
continues to grow at over 1%, there is little safety margin.
· The problems of compounding growth in the face of
finite resources are not easily understood by optimistic,
short-term-oriented, and relatively innumerate humans (especially the
political variety).
· The fact is that no compound growth is sustainable.
If we maintain our desperate focus on growth, we will run out of everything
and crash. We must substitute qualitative growth for quantitative growth.
· But Mrs. Market is helping, and right now she is sending
us the Mother of all price signals. The prices of all important commodities
except oil declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002
until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than
occurred during World War II.
· Statistically, most commodities are now so far away
from their former downward trend that it makes it very probable that the old
trend has changed – that there is in fact a Paradigm Shift –
perhaps the most important economic event since the Industrial Revolution.
· Climate change is associated with weather
instability, but the last year was exceptionally bad. Near term it will
surely get less bad.
· Excellent long-term investment opportunities in
resources and resource efficiency are compromised by the high chance of an
improvement in weather next year and by the possibility that China may
stumble.
· From now on, price pressure and shortages of
resources will be a permanent feature of our lives. This will increasingly
slow down the growth rate of the developed and developing world and put a
severe burden on poor countries.
· We all need to develop serious resource plans,
particularly energy policies. There is little time to waste.”
“JEREMY GRANTHAM: We're Headed For A Disaster Of
Biblical Proportions”
Henry Blodget, businessinsider.com, 6/13/11
Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham has never been
shy about expressing shocking and/or unpopular Views.
And his views are often correct, as
testified to by his extraordinary Investment Success.
And while we do not always agree –
the evidence is that the recent run-up in food and energy prices is at
least as much a product of Fed Money Creation via QE 1 and QE 2 and the
Fed’s other “vehicles”, as it is of the population growth
and consequent resources shortage syndrome, which Grantham describes.
But for the mid and long term, Grantham
is likely correct that a paradigm shift has occurred – inexorably
rising world Population coupled with finite and/or not easily replaceable
supplies of key resources, is bound to generate a long term trend of
sustained commodities price increases.
Moreover, Population Growth in Major
Developed and Developing Nations which have the financial wherewithal to
obtain food and other resources, is dramatically
increasing. The USA’s Immigration-generated 4 Million/Yr. Population
Growth puts the U.S. on Trend to reach a billion people by 2075. And
China’s 20 Million/Yr. Growth on top of its 1.3 billion population will Make it a Resource Hog for Years to come.
In addition, one point Grantham mentions,
but does not emphasize enough, is the Energy Intensive Character of Modern
Agriculture.
Nor does he emphasize Agriculture’s
Reliance on Portable (i.e. typically Petroleum based) fossil fuels.
The Bottom line is that the New Paradigm
long-term Uptrend is Commodities Price Inflation.
Indeed, the Commodities and General Price
Inflation (and other Key Indicators such as unemployment) we are already seeing,
is not accurately reflected in the Bogus Official Numbers.
As the Chart in the Note Below** shows,
Real U.S. Inflation is 11.15% (and Real Unemployment at 22.3%).
**Shadowstats.com
calculates Key U.S. Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and
1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider
Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real
Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported June 15, 2011
3.57% 11.15
% (annualized May, 2011 Rate)
U.S. Unemployment reported June 3, 2011
9.1% 22.3%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported May 26, 2011
2.31% -
2.60%
U.S. M3 reported June 18, 2011 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report 1.85%
Unfortunately, Policies of the Private
for-profit Fed, the U.S., and other Major Governments have generally
exacerbated rather than helped solve the basic economic problems: too much
debt, too much Fiat currency printing, and stimuli and bailouts which have
focused nearly solely on helping the Mega-Banks and not on helping
Main Street, Small Business, and Households.
Justice Litle
summarizes this well:
“The
stimulus-driven recovery was an illusion. All it did was pump up risky assets
and get investors excited. The real problems of the global economy were never
addressed. The market is being forced to realize that now.
In the United
States, those real problems center around debt-laden consumers and a massive
housing bubble. The U.S. economy is 70% driven by consumer spending. Consumers
borrowed until their debt loads got way out of control, egged on by cheap
mortgages and a housing bubble created by the Federal Reserve.
And that
shows why all the "funny money" thrown at the market by the Federal
Reserve hasn't helped at all. It hasn't done anything to help consumers
reduce their huge debt loads. And it hasn't stopped the housing market from
falling.
We saw a big
rise in corporate profits after the 2008 financial crisis. But, ironically,
that rise actually hurt consumers -- and made the pain worse for a majority
of Americans -- because corporations bounced back by shedding jobs, moving
operations overseas, and undergoing heavy cost-cutting programs.
All that the
stimulus did was put profits back in the pockets of banking executives. The
economic data is confirming it now -- we're really no better off than we were
before. Worse off even, because of all the extra debt the government has
taken on.
In Europe the
situation is even worse. The European situation has literally become "impossible."
Consider the question of whether or not Greece (or Ireland or Portugal) will
default:
· If Greece and the other PIGs actually default, a
"Lehman 2.0" credit event could rip through the eurozone
and cause mass panic. Moody's just downgraded a number of large French banks
in fear of this possibility.
· If Greece does not default, on the other
hand, then Greek society threatens to explode because the
"austerity" conditions forced upon the populace are too severe.
The choice of
Greek politicians (and Irish and Portuguese and Spanish too) comes down to
this: Take measures that risk blowing up the eurozone
financial system... or do nothing and watch civil society go up in flames.”
“Macro Trader Briefing #120: "Risk Off" Could Dominate
Everything Now”
Justice Litle's Macro Trader, 6/15/11
Litle’s analysis is essentially correct and, considered in
conjunction with the Realities of Markets and Statistics manipulation
referred above, and below, provide the basis for a Key Inference.
The New Paradigm Uptrend in Commodities
and other Prices in-General will be punctuated, especially near term, by
Periodic Sharp Drops in those prices caused by
1.) Deflation
Events and
2.) Cartel*
Markets Manipulation
3.) Government Markets Manipulation
Regarding #1 for example, the anticipated
Greek and other PIIGS Eventual Defaults will likely Take Down some
Mega-Banks. This will cause a loss of confidence in the Markets and Take Down
Equities and Further slow the Economy, resulting in a temporary reduction
in Commodities demand and thus Prices.
But that will not derail the Long term
New Paradigm Commodities Uptrend.
Other Hits to this Uptrend will be
suffered when the Cartel* intensifies it attacks on the Precious Metals and
other Prices.
The recent report by Chris Woods,
publisher of Fear & Greed, that a vice-Governor of the Belgian
Central Bank admitted that 43% of its 216 tonne
Gold reserves had been lent out (!), is yet another item of evidence
(of many we have previously published) that a Fed-led Cartel of Central
Bankers regularly acts to suppress Precious Metals Prices.
*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and
Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and
Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s
December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention
entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From
The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s
July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S.
Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts
Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com.
Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including
testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price
manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned
from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s
profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been
facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.”
Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions
prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated
profitably.
But these Price Suppression Attacks
provide a Great Opportunity to Profit and Protect from the Coming Anarchy. An
Opportunity to buy Fortress Assets such as Gold, Silver, and Key Commodities,
at temporarily reduced prices. Deepcaster just this
week issued another Buy Recommendation on one such Asset.
Gold and Silver Investors should also invest
in selected Food Producers and those Involved in the Water Treatment/Supply
Business, but at the Right Time, because the Factors which help cause Gold,
Silver and Crude Oil Prices increases, will also continue to impel Food Price
increases, almost regardless of Economic Conditions.
Thus, Deepcaster
recently recommended two such Food Producers and one Water Producer and
Management Company***, all of which we believe to be deeply undervalued (one
is trading at under $6/share and the other two under $2/share), in our recent
Letters and Alerts.
One is China’s largest
producer and Seller of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables. It also grows Rice and
breeds and sells livestock and has over 20,000 employees. It recently had a
P/E Ratio under 4 and profits have grown over 20%/yr. As we write it is
trading at around 60 cents per share U.S. or just below $5 HK, near its 52
week low.
Investments in Precious Metals and Key Commodities
for which there is relative inelasticity of demand, such as Food and Food
Producers is an important Strategy to help protect from the Coming Anarchy.
Best
regards,
Deepcaster LLC
Wealth
Preservation - Wealth Enhancement
Financial
and Geopolitical Intelligence
Gravitas,
Pietas, Virtus
|