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June was
not a particularly good month for Germany. First, she suffered a loss to
Italy in the semi-finals of the European Cup soccer tournament. Then, she
suffered a more significant blow when Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Monti, extracted important concessions from German
Chancellor Angela Merkel at the European Summit. A loss on the soccer
pitch can put a dent in the national ego. But a loss on the field of
finance can be far more serious.
The deal
made by Merkel puts at risk Germany's hard-won financial treasure and
could earn her the permanent ire of her people. After months of
resistance, many have wondered why Merkel finally gave in. Some believe
that she was persuaded by the exposure of German banks to Eurozone
sovereign debt. Others credit the warnings of the Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) that may have persuaded leaders of Eurozone nations to
yield sovereignty in return for financial support. But whatever the
motivation, Merkel is moving into dangerous political waters.
Poll
after poll makes it perfectly clear that the German people have no
interest in exposing their hard-earned savings to the ravages of unending
bailouts and currency debasement. In addition, the German Constitutional
Court has backed popular opinion in its opposition to Germany accepting
'undemocratic' EU control over the German people. Indeed, the Court has
postponed its approval of German participation in the key European
Stabilization Mechanism rescue fund.
German
leaders, however, have been seeking to translate their country's economic
power into political power over the entire Eurozone.
For the
German people, the purchasing power of their painstakingly accrued
national savings is not worth sacrificing for the advantages of economic
empire. To this end, Germany has stood alone within the EU in a massive,
but seldom reported, struggle for a sound currency. In this, Merkel has
faced a phalanx of nations that, dominated by the Anglo-American led
Keynesians, have fought for a debased euro currency. Up to now, Germany
had succeeded in establishing the European Central Bank (ECB) as a sound
money central bank.
These
factors explain Germany's reluctance to give in to appeals for funding
from troubled Eurozone countries which wanted cash but were unwilling to
surrender any national sovereignty. The recent price of this stand has
been a Europe in recession.
In order
to keep alive the Franco-Germanic ideal of a European Union, German banks
have become 'stuffed' with billions of euros worth of the questionable
debt of fellow Eurozone nations. Germany therefore has an interest in
protecting these debts. On this, the Bank of International Settlements
last month issued a strong, revealing and important statement. It held that,
"central banks are being cornered into prolonging monetary stimulus
as governments drag their feet," adding that these stimuli are
merely "palliatives and have their limits." The BIS then warned
that, "As the benefits of extraordinary monetary easing shrink and
become less certain, the risks of expanding central bank balance sheets
[currently standing at $18 trillion] are likely to grow."
In short,
the BIS told intransigent leaders that, to avoid the unpleasant
repercussions of possible massive civil unrest and broadening poverty
within their societies, they must surrender some of their sovereignty in
exchange for funding. Our suspicion is that undisclosed assurances of
such a move by southern PIGS countries may have been given to Merkel.
The
result was that certain Eurozone bailout funds were authorized to
recapitalize Eurozone banks directly. Of course, this includes German
banks. However, the numbers are most probably far too small to enable a
banking recovery in Europe. For example, the roughly $600 billion in
combined Eurozone rescue fund commitments is dwarfed by the $3 trillion
of toxic assets held by Spanish and Italian banks. On the other hand, the
disclosed agreement does pave the way towards pan-European banking
controls. This may indicate the initial steps of sovereignty surrender
playing directly into German hands.
If Merkel
is successful in selling the new package to her parliament and voters,
and provided that a covert agreement was in fact reached on a progressive
surrender of sovereignty to Germany, the new package could succeed.
Absent these two critical conditions, last week's agreement should not be
seen as anything less than a victory for the printing press.
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