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In the same category
Give me liberty or give me death
Published : December 12th, 2012
3865 words - Reading time : 9 - 15 minutes
( 4 votes, 4.3/5 ) Print article
 
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UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE
For People Who Think

 

 

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.

 

 

GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH

 

 

"These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands for it now, deserves the love and thanks of every man and woman." --Thomas Payne

 

 

THE DOOR TO LIBERTY

 

A few decades ago, one of the jobs that I applied for required a battery of examinations including a comprehensive personality profile. After three days of psychological tests, the career profiler who compiled my assessment said with the utmost candor, "You are crazy!" He got no rise out of me since I have received that kind of appraisal once before, but he did offer a fresh perspective on it. He continued, "Not crazy in the pathological sense, but crazy in that you are one of only a very few people out of thousands that I have profiled who actually thrives in the midst of crisis and conflict. Most "normal people" try to avoid crisis and conflict at all costs. He labeled my folder, "Warrior" and I did not get the job. In light of my penchant for what Sam Adams called "the animated contest for freedom," I offer the following opinion about the future of American Liberty.

 

On occasion I have been critical of Barrack Obama, a phony "community organizer" con man, (like Clinton and Carter before him) who, with the help of his Leftist Puppeteers, and a far left Media, masterfully duped sixty nine million Americans into giving him the most expensive public housing and benefits package in the world. There is no one more critical than I of this charlatan's political endeavor to demolish free enterprise under a mountain of debt and regulations bomb and from the economic rubble, resurrect a transformed USA subject to tyrannical rule by Government via a form of Democratic Socialism or more properly defined by the word Fascism. Obama built his presidential campaign around a "Hope: and "change" theme:

 

History has taught us well: From the smallest community (our Pilgrims and the Israeli Kibbutz) to Cuba and all the way up to the largest countries, Russia, India and China, the full implementation of Socialism (Communism) has never worked to "improve the lives of its people." As I have noted previously, Democratic Socialism, like National Socialism (Nazism), is in reality Marxist Socialism. Plain and simple, it is nothing but Fascism repackaged. They, just as all that came before them, seek a centrally planned economy directed by a single-party (controlled by an Individual Dictator) and the state controls economic production by way of regulation, rules and high taxation in the guise of fairness through income redistribution.

 

The success of Democratic Socialism can only be temporarily achieved by eliminating Essential Liberty-- the rights "endowed by our Creator" - in the name of a false promise of Government Security, that ends up lowering the standards of living for all (except of course for the favored ruling class elite).

 

Indeed, Obama's mission was from the very beginning the transformation of the economic and political crisis, that both Republicans and Democrats created. This is the horse that he rode in on. But we can turn the tables on him so that it can also be the horse that he and his Socialist cadre ride out on.

 

Truth be told, I want to "fundamentally transform" what our nation has become after eighty years of incremental encroachment upon Rule of Law by socialist predators, the most brazen offenders in history being FDR culminating with Nixon, Carter and Obama. Indeed, I too do not want the current economic and political "crisis to go to waste." I see it as a great opportunity to "change" our economy just as it was changed after the Civil War into the thirty of the greatest years of progress for the common man in the history of the USA and the World. Of course, the opportunity I see in the current crisis is diametrically opposed to that which Obama and his Leftist cadres envision. I see a new dawn for Liberty with minimal interference by government in the affairs of men and business. For all Patriots, steadfast in our devotion to Freedom, the sun is rising on our most pressing goals: To preserve the legacy of Liberty for this and future generations and the transformational restoration of Constitutional Rule of Law. In order to achieve these goals, we require the transformational reformation of government in fulfillment of Thomas Jefferson's contention, "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." Let us pray that America's second civil war will not require guns and the blood of patriots, which can only be avoided if we act now before it is too late.

 

Many believe that the current economic crisis had its beginnings in 2008 with the surprisingly sudden collapse in real estate values and its subsequent banking crisis, but it did not. It was one hundred years in the making, beginning with Teddy Roosevelt and whose acceleration began in earnest with FDR (even a Democrat packed Supreme Court overturned some of FDR'S laws , as being unconstitutional) all the way up to the present day, thanks to the ever increasing desire for more and more power of both main stream parties. The Obama Administration used the cover of our current crisis to implement its so-called "stimulus plan" which only served to stimulate the growth of central government at an enormous cost in inflation and lost jobs. All of which resulted in an accelerated accumulation of crushing national debt, now approaching $17 trillion with $1 trillion (more realistically $2 trillion/year) deficits as far as the eye can see, which short of bold intervention has placed our economy on a collision course with a catastrophic collapse. The Commerce Department reports that the American economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter of 2012. However, using the real inflation rate of 5% and using real money, the economy really grew at a negative 3.2%.

 

The declining status of the U.S. Dollar as the world's safest and only Reserve fiat currency is a metaphor for the decline of our standing as the world's beacon of liberty as well as the decline of "American exceptionalism."

 

Despite all the considerable barriers to economic recovery, there is still time for a transformational restoration of constitutional Rule of Law and the return to Free Market Capitalism that comports with the Spirit and Laws of our Constitution. But that will require bold intervention, and it will require that a majority of the members of Congress honor and abide by their oath of office.

 

At present, there are outstanding plans on the table to put prosperity over property including the Republican Study Committee's Budget for FY 2012 and the Heritage Foundation's comprehensive plan to restore prosperity. But both studies are all not good enough because both are an accountant's response to a fundamental structural government problem. No one can fix a system (Socialism) that by its very design is destined to fail from the outset.

 

House and Senate leaders are stepping out with bolder propositions to cut government spending as a prerequisite to raising the national debt ceiling. That too will fail. Speaker John Boehner has drawn the line in the sand, and he may even hold to it. But that too will not solve our problems because we cannot possibly tax enough or cut enough entitlements to even begin to pay off our ever increasing debt. Nothing can possibly solve our problems without a commitment to reforming the way government works, which in turn must require Term Limits of one eight year term and one term only, without which nothing of this kind could ever get enough votes to pass.

 

However, even with significant spending cuts and reforms to reduce our debt, it too will fail. So too will the Conservative Senate Leaders' calls for a Balanced Budget Amendment as a condition to any agreement on increasing the national debt limit. (It will never pass even if somehow it came to a vote and even if it did pass, it won't work.) WHY? Because debt limit increases and spending are immediate and spending cuts are pushed off on some future Congress that will not adhere to the spending cuts.

 

All this is just Pie in the Sky political rhetoric and part of election politicking.

 

Call me crazy -- that profiler and others certainly have -- but I clearly see a new dawn for Liberty, brought to us by God's intervention in bringing us Glen Beck, The Tea Party Movement, Sarah Palin and Herman Cain; a combination of which would be unbeatable and would take the problems of race out of the picture not for 2012 but perhaps forever as 15% to 25% of African Americans would vote Republican. I believe, as did President Ronald Reagan that, "America's best days are yet to come. Our proudest moments are yet to be. Our most glorious achievements still lie ahead."

 

But I also know, as did he, that "Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We CANNOT pass it on to our children through our genes. It must be fought for, protected, and passed on through education and more importantly, by example for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years reminiscing about what it was once like here in the United States, when men were really born free."

 

THE TIME HAS COME TO STAND UP AND BE COUNTED

 

It is possible to arrange your investments so you don't have to worry about the approaching cliff that we are about to go over. Personally, I don't want to be one of the lemmings that blindly follow each other over the cliff. There are a small number of unusual situations that will make you money even if the dysfunctional clowns in Washington never get their act together. Once you own these securities, you won't have to worry about how politicians are mistreating our economy. In fact, the worse they behave, the better off you'll be.

 

If the endgame of Obamanomics reaches its UNSTOPABLE conclusion... and/or as investors realize that a new president can do very little to fix anything in the short run... these coming economic Tidal Waves will rollover your finances, but there are moves that you can make that could save your financial life. Few investors realize that these unusual escape routes even exist. But bringing investors out-of-the-mainstream investments is exactly what UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE is all about: I don't operate like other financial publishers. I don't accept advertising and I don't hire journalists. Every recommendation is from me or someone that I know who has personally created his own investment wealth-not from blowhard media pundits.

 

·         Such as TBT, QID, BGZ, SKF.

·          

·         The perfect inflation hedge-and a good place to keep your money in any scenario, this pick gets you into an asset class not one investor in 100 is aware of: The company is called Pacific Coast Oil Trust. It trades on the NYSE as "ROYT." It gives you an instant stake in 276 oil wells. Even better, it's yielding 10.1%. Most oil companies are pretty complex. But this oil investment couldn't be any simpler. Do your own homework and check out this 10% yielder for yourself.

·          

HIGH YIELD FLOATING RATE BANK LOANS

 

These funds buy loans made by major banks such as JP Morgan to large corporate borrowers. But they only buy loans issued at floating rates, which reset every 60 to 90 days. So if inflation increases and interest rates rise, you'll earn more. And even at today's low rates; I'm finding floating-rate bank securities that offer steady yields of 7%. If inflation starts bucking up, you'll be earning 8%, 9%, and even 10% or more on these notes.

 

Senior Loan ETF: Safe funds for yield chasers (BKLN). Do your homework and check out these funds for yourself to determine if these investments are suitable for you.

 

DIVERSIFICATION: Is a very sound investment principle and one that I have been overlooking in my letters. It is never too late to begin diversifying.

 

I ALWAYS TRY TO USE THE ONE INVESTING PRINCIPLE THAT ALWAYS WORKS

 

How does one beat the market on a regular basis? By following the same one used by J. Paul Getty. What did Getty know about building wealth and investing for spectacular gains that his contemporaries didn't? A few years before he died, Getty shared his "secret." He explained that whenever he made an investment, he tried to apply one simple principle: If you want to make money, really big money, do what nobody else is doing. Is that not also what Warren Buffett tries to do?

 

I HAVE TRIED TO MAKE THIS THE GUIDING PRINCIPLE OF UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE.

 

In Getty's own words, "Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying." This is not merely a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful investment, most commonly known as "Contrary Investing". Everybody always talks about being a contrarian, but few actually are because it also means that you must be anti-social. "Tell 100 people about impending bad news and 95 will automatically HATE you. And should you be so UNFORTUNATE as to be right, so will the other 5".

 

It is probably the simplest, sanest, most powerful and reliable money-making technique ever devised to buy low and sell high for maximum profit. It works in any market, from stocks and bonds to gold and real estate-because human nature NEVER CHANGES. You don't need special training to profit from contrary investing. All you need is THE COURAGE TO STAND ALONE. If you want to buy low and sell high, you must train yourself to buy when everybody, including yourself, is feeling discouraged-when the news is bad and getting worse. We are then most likely to be near the bottom. And you should sell when everybody is excited and the news is good because that's likely to be the top. (GOOG and AAPLE have both been recently touted as being stocks to hold forever.) Are you or are you not a Contrarian?

 

Unfortunately, too many people do exactly the opposite - They are trend followers as are most hedge funds, stock advisers, all brokerage firms and investment letters.

 

UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE'S documented track record goes back to 2002 when I was already SUPER BULLISH on Gold and Silver and still am. I turned Super Bearish on the Market and Real Estate in November and December 2007, while staying bullish on Gold and Silver. The rest is history for all to see in my files at Gold-Eagle.com

 

THE TRADERS BIGGEST FALLACY

 

Ask any trader how to make money in the market and they will tell you "BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH" which is absolutely WRONG. By far, the great majority of successful traders and trading systems are TREND FOLLOWERS such as Investors Business Daily's Cup and Handle. They are all predominately "BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER" whether they admit to it or not. By the way, this does not contradict J.P. Getty or for that matter Warren Buffett. Never confuse short term trading with long term investing.

 

HOW NOW DOW

 

Stocks plunged FRIDAY November 1st and Tuesday, October 23rd, the worst single day decline since June 2012. Stocks topped when the Fed announced QE3. Since then, the Industrials are down 4.2%, not a major decline, but noticeable. Apple Computer announced its latest technology innovations on Tuesday and Apple fell 20 points (3.26% on the news). Apple Inc. accounts for a 4.9% weighting of the S&P 500 and a whopping 18.9% of the NASDAQ. The Industrials fell 243 points Tuesday, with DuPont getting killed (down 9%) and MMM losing 4%.

 

Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are down 2.5% from a year ago. That is a huge amount of money taken out of the economy. It is a shrinking pie, which means tax revenues will be down, jobs will be eliminated not created, and trouble lays ahead. That is the fundamental picture. Tuesday's and Friday's declines were the large price move in stocks that Monday's small change in the McClellan Oscillator was suggesting was coming over the next few days.

 

Now the technical picture:

 

Neither decline was a 90% panic selling down day, so we do not have selling capitulation. The decline from mid-September is choppy and not looking impulsive to me, suggesting it is corrective inside a larger degree rising trend. These 2 declines did trigger new sell signals in a number of short term and Secondary Trend Indicators. These sells mean most of our key indicators are on sell signals and suggest more downside is possible over the short-run.

 

However, this is not an impulsive decline, it is a corrective wave b-down, which means we are not going to see selling capitulation at its conclusion; we are not going to see new lows in the 600+ area; we are not going to see overwhelming panic selling at its bottom unless Obama wins big and maintains control of the Senate and wins back control of the house. Wave c-up is next and will likely start without selling capitulation occurring first. The evidence tonight suggests wave c-up should start within one to two weeks perhaps after the election, perhaps sooner. Why do I believe this? First, there was a phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for October 25th, +/- five days, and a Bradley Model turn scheduled for November 1st, probably pointing to the same turn. Second, and probably most importantly, the VIX generated a Buy Signal Set Up on Tuesday, October 23rd. It did not trigger a new Buy, but most of the time when it sets up, a Buy signal arrives within a few days. In each instance, a significant rally began within days of the Buy signal, and took prices up for several days and weeks. This is a reliable trend indicator - amazing actually. On Tuesday, the VIX closed above the upper boundary of the 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands. Once it closes back inside the bands, it triggers a Buy signal. Also, the 10 day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator is not suffering much during the decline from mid-September. This scenario becomes all the more valid with a Romney win. Trannies actually rose almost 1% on Tuesday, with the small cap Russell 2000 not falling much. Apple is very oversold on its Daily Full Stochastics. In conclusion, I see stocks could fall a bit more over the next week, then bottom and rise sharply into year end. Precious metals should follow stocks. Then, the Jaws of Death pattern will be completed and a massive decline will start.

 

GOLD AND SILVER

 

Silver lost its luster after the 2011 rally peaked just below the ballyhooed bull target at the all-time high of $50 an ounce set in 1980. The drop from $48 to the $26 July lows measured a nearly 50% decline from the peak. A breakout rally in the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) above the $26-$28 channel top in September began the recovery rally. The latest pause in the upward run offers opportunity with support sitting at $28 - $30 to lean on. As a side note, if you adjust that record price for inflation over the 30+ years, the real upside target for silver sits significantly higher at $140, but my target for 2017 still remains at $250+.

 

FOR INVESTORS: BUY ON WEAKNESS AND HOLD. Disregard current manipulation of precious metals.

 

Every day, 5,000 tons of silver and 650 tons of gold are traded in the paper market. This is an astonishing 25% of annual production of each metal that is traded daily. Currently, there is clearly intervention to hold down the price of gold and silver at every important level. Like all interventions, this one will fail too. The paper market is massively short and would be incapable of delivering even a small fraction of physical gold or silver against their commitments.

 

So what we are seeing is a short term correction in the continuous rise in gold and silver against paper money. The correction is likely to be short lived and eventually will lead to new highs. But investors should not really be concerned. Gold and Silver will continue to reflect the escalating deficits and the never-ending money printing by governments.

 

We know that no government is capable of maintaining any serious level of austerity. They all fear this will automatically lead to rejection by the voters and loss of power. So governments worldwide will continue to spend money they don't have and print endless amounts of it. The situation is the same for both candidates. Neither candidate is capable of taking any measure that will cut the escalating deficits. Since Bernanke became chairman of the Fed in 2006, the Federal Debt has doubled from $8 trillion to $16 trillion! But this is only the beginning. There is nothing that will change the trend of rising deficits and rising gold (except the introduction of TERM LIMITS of one eight term and one term only).

 

MORE IMPORTANTLY: JPM and the rest of the Bullion Bank Precious Metals MANIPULATORS are nearing the end of their rope as it becomes more and more obvious that they do not have the Metals they are supposed to have in their vaults. The proof of that is that more and more countries, like Germany, Holland, Venezuela, etc. are demanding return of their GOLD. Once the situation reaches a head, gold and silver prices will explode. Continue to buy on weakness. The Friday down move was a gift. I hope you all took advantage of it.

 

 

 

GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS

 

THE COMING YEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT THE TIME TO BE GOING IT ALONE

 

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Uncommon Common Sense Inc.
Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.
2078 Bonisle Circle
Palm Beach Gardens FL 33418
uncommon@aubiebaltin.com
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Please Note: This article is for education purposes only and is designed to help you make up your own mind, not for me to make it up for you. Only you know your own personal circumstances so only you can decide the best places to invest your money and the degree of risk that you are prepared to take. The Information and data included here has been gleaned from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by me. Nothing stated in here should be taken as a recommendation for you to buy or sell securities.

 

 

 

 

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Aubie Baltin

Aubie Baltin has spent his career identifying major trends in the markets and helping others to profit from them. He uncovers changes to the major trends in his newsletter, “UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE”, then presents specific, actionable recommendations to help his readers profit before they become obvious to everyone else.
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