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The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks
John Dalberg Lord Acton  
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Published : February 13th, 2013
443 words - Reading time : 1 - 1 minutes
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Keywords :   Central Bank | Dubai | Fixed | Global | Gold | Government | India | None | Silver | Thailand |



Gold Today – In New York the gold price fell to $1,649.70, yesterday. In Asia and in London it traded just below that level and then Fixed at $1,641.75 in London, and in the euro at €1,225.28, while the euro was $1.3399. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was $1,645.50 and in the euro at €1,223.98.

Silver Today – Silver closed at $30.98, yesterday. Ahead of New York’s opening silver stood at $30.80.

Gold (very short-term)

We expect gold to rest on support before consolidating, in New York shortly.

Silver (very short-term)

We expect silver to rest on support before consolidating, in New York shortly.

Price Drivers

Gold & Silver –

Gold made the expected strong move to the downside in New York. Our worry that with the Chinese now on holiday for their Chinese New Year, Chinese retail buying is absent from the market for the holiday. We do expect to see Central Bank demand to rise now, simply because the volumes of gold available from the dealers are such that central bankers will buy.

The lower retail demand currently, should prove short-term as once the Chinese return from holiday the powerful underlying growth there should continue to fuel the growth of the middle classes. [Subscribe to our newsletters at www.GoldForecaster.com and www.SilverForecaster.com]. Do we believe that the Indian government is succeeding in halting the inflow of gold to India? No we do not! In the latest figures out of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, India imported 950 tonnes in 2012. Of this, 250 tonnes came into the country through the illegal channels. In 2011, India imported over 900 tonnes of gold and none of it came through smuggling. The rise in duties has not stopped the import of gold into the country it only changed the route it comes in. Smugglers earn a profit of around $3,719 (Rs 200,000) on every kilogram of gold smuggled into the country. So smuggling is now more profitable. Gold prices in India are 5.7% higher than in Dubai. Typically, gold is smuggled into India from neighbouring Dubai and Thailand. With every individual smuggling in an average of 5 kilo of gold per trip, the return on investment for each smuggler in one year amounts to almost 200%. We expect the price differences to encourage smuggling even more, over time!

Silver –Silver is locked solidly to the gold price moves even on the downside moved by dealers in the market and hesitant U.S. investors, who like to buy as silver is rising.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters

Global Gold Price (1 ounce)

Today

3 days ago

Franc

Sf1,509.01

Sf1,521.91

US

$1,645.50

$1,675.65

EU

1,223.98

€1,235.50

India

Rs.88,618.40

Rs.89,187.31


Data and Statistics for these countries : India | Thailand | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : India | Thailand | All
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Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian Philips' history in the financial world goes back to 1970, after leaving the British Army having been an Officer in the Light Infantry, serving in Malaya, Mauritius, and Belfast. After a brief period in Timber Management, Julian joined the London Stock Exchange, qualifying as a member. He specialised from the beginning in currencies, gold and the "Dollar Premium". At the time, the gold / currency world exploded into action after the floating of the $ and the Pound Sterling. He wrote on gold and the $ premium in magazines, Accountancy and The International Currency Review. Julian moved to South Africa, where he was appointed a Macro economist for the Electricity Supply Commission, guiding currency decisions on the multi-Billion foreign Loan Portfolio, before joining Chase Manhattan the the U.K. Merchant Bank, Hill Samuel, in Johannesburg, specialising in gold. He moved to Capetown, where establishing the Fund Management department of the Board of Executors. Julian returned to the 'Gold World' over two years ago and established "Gold - Authentic Money" and now contributing to "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster".
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