Gold Today –New York closed at $1,693.6 down $10 yesterday. This morning, Asian & London dealers pushed prices further down to $1,688 before it recovered to $1,692. It was Fixed at $1,693.00 down $10.00 on yesterday’s Fix. In the euro it was Fixed at €1,295.135 down €8.5 while the euro was slightly stronger at €1: $1.3072 and stabilizing. Three of the five gold bullion members of the Fix were buyers and two sellers. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was $1,692.15 and in the euro at €1,295.08.

Silver Today – Silver closed in New York at $32.85 yesterday. In Asia and London’s start to the week, silver fell more to $32.80 in London. Ahead of New York’s opening it stood at $32.80.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

Gold is expected to show a weaker bias, in New York today.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

Silver is expected to show a weaker bias, in New York today.

Price Drivers

Gold & Silver – Traders and speculators are getting the upper hand as supports failed at $1,700. We reiterate that this is a speculative ‘bear raid’ trying to get the price lower. It appears that the volume of gold being traded at these levels is not large. However, it is enough to take gold and silver down through supports. We do expect the large long-term buyers from central banks and Asia to enter the market to buy at these levels, but lower prices may well be seen first.

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The dollar is slightly stronger against the euro today but the fall does not tell us that the euro is weakening. As prices move in waves, so we are seeing a short-term downward wave. It could turn round any time. Even though the Eurozone is in a recession overall, the news out of Germany is that manufacturing is stronger than expected and the E.C.B. [over 3% against an expected 1%] is letting it be known that they will not lower interest rates, despite there being scope to do so. This supports a stronger euro, but should not do the same for gold.

The gold price continues to fall in both the euro and the dollar, so cutting its link with currencies on the fall and on the rise. Gold in the Indian Rupee is at its lowest level for months [see below].

Silver – Silver is still following the gold price as it breaks from currencies. However, the silver price is driven mainly by U.S. investors and speculators. That’s why it did not react so quickly to the initial ‘bear-raid’ on gold. Despite its robustness it will continue to move with the gold price.

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters