|
Gold and silver have taken more of a back seat over the
past 12 months because of their lack of performance after topping out in
2011. Since then prices have been trading sideways/lower with declining
volume. The price action is actually very bullish from a technical
standpoint. My chart analysis and forward looking forecasts show $3,000ish
for gold and $90ish for silver in the next 18-24 months.
Now don't get
too excited yet as there is another point of view to ponder...
My
non-technical outlook is more of a contrarian thought and worth thinking
about as it may unfold and catch many gold bugs and investors off guard
costing them a good chunk of their life savings. While I could write a
detailed report with my thinking, analysis and possible outcomes I decided to
keep it simple and to the point for you.
Bullish Case: Euro-land starts to crumble, stocks fall sharply
sending money into gold and silver which are trading at these major support
levels which in the past triggered multi month rallies.
Bearish Case: Greece, Spain and Italy worth through their issues
over the next few months while metals bounce around or drift higher because
of uncertainty. But once things have been sorted out and financial stability
(of some sort) has been created and the END OF THE FINANCIAL COLLAPSE has
been avoided money will no longer want to be in precious metals but rather
move into risk-on.
Take a look
at the gold and silver charts below for an idea of what may happen and where
support levels are if we do see money start to rotate out of metals in the
next 3-6 months.
 
Over the next
few months things will slowly start to unfold and shed some light on what the
next big move is likely going to happen to gold and silver.
The price
movements we have seen for both gold and silver indicate were are just
warming up for something really big to happen. It could be a massive
parabolic rally to ridiculous new highs in 2012/2013 or it could be a huge
unwinding of the safe havens as countries sort out their issues and the big
money starts moving out of metals and into currencies and stocks.
Chris Vermeulen
Editor, the
Gold and Oil Guy
|