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INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 29 2015
De-Dollarization Du Jour: Russia Backs BRICS Alternative To SWIFT
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015
Russia is moving to undercut a critical financial communications link by creating an alternative system backed by the world's rising EM powerhouses who are set to officially launch their own development bank when they convene in July. At the same time, Moscow will consider cementing its economic ties with regional allies via the establishment of a currency bloc.
China Deploys Artillery on "Sand Castles" In South China Sea
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015
"U.S. surveillance imagery shows China has positioned weaponry on one of the artificial islands it is developing in the South China Sea," WSJ reports. US Defense Secretary says the US will "fly, sail, and operate" wherever it wants.
Gold Short Term
Gold has been doing absolutely nothing but trading sideways in an ever tightening range as it mulls over the current situation of global contraction, negative interest rates, a surging US dollar and related currency wars and conventional, financial and cyberspace wars in the making. An attempt to break above 1225 was initiated in May and it lasted a full 8 hours before succumbing back below 1225. On the other side of the trade is there has been 8 attempts to crack 1172-1182 (our yearly pivot numbers) since the last medium term cycle (Week of March 17-23) and so far price traded once at 1168 for about 10 minutes before moving back above 1172. And that is the bottom line. Any close below 1163-1167 favors the downside towards 1130-1150 and potentially lower.
On the upside current resistance (since Tuesday) is 1193-1198. Any close above that level and then 1204 will give a slight edge to the bulls and potentially a move back up to 1225-1244 going into mid June. IF we do close below 1163-1167, then favor new lows into mid June.
Cycles
The next cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and thus the window is open for a low to develop in this timeframe. Usually odds are 75-80% on our cycle turns. THIS CURRENT TURN only has a 65% odds favored turn. That means if we close below 1163-1167 after June 5th, expect the cycle to INVERT and move lower into mid month. This cycle happens only 4 times per year and where the odds for an inversion is greater, but on average, this is where the biggest moves in price are most likely to occur as well. Most likely is not most ABSOLUTELY, as there are no guarantees in trading, there are only odds.
Look for a low to establish and try and move higher to mid month. Any close below 1163-1167 after June 5th will favor the opposite.
Silver
The one thing is silver continues to hold at the moving averages and seems to be a bit stronger than gold. That USUALLY (not absolutely) means that the metals could (not will) be gearing up for a rally. In other words, it tends to favor an upside resolve.
UNTIL GOLD CLOSES ABOVE 1194 the trend is down. Above 1194, we can loosely use neutral and a close above 1205 should garner higher prices towards 1225-1244.
 
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