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Gold Daily Report ~ April 22 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Neutral– Next short term cycle begins Tuesday/Wednesday into May 3rd. Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.
Initial Resistance 1209-1214 2nd tier 1219-1226
Support 1182-1193 2nd tier 1165-1175
Resistance on the last update was listed at 1207-1214 and the high was 1204. Support was listed 1182-1193 and the low was 1193.
ECB Prepares To Sacrifice Greek Banks With 50% Collateral Haircut
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015
In what seems like a coincidental retaliation for Greece's pivot to Russia (and following Greece's initiation of capital controls), the supposedly independent European Central Bank has decided suddenly that - after dishing out €74 billion of emergency liquidity to the Greek National Bank to fund its banks - as The NY Times reports, the value of the collateral that Greek banks post at their own central bank to secure these loans be reduced by as much as 50%, and the haircut scould increase if negotiations with Europe remain at an impasse. As we detailed earlier, this is about as worst-case-scenario for Greece as is 'diplomatically' possible currently, and highlights an increasingly hard line by The ECB toward The Greeks as the move will leave banks hard-pressed to survive.
The Mystery Of China's Gold Holdings Is Coming To An End
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015
While the reality is that nobody has a clue what China's actual gold holdings are, the good news is that the answer is coming. As noted above, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has asked the head of the International Monetary Fund to include China's yuan currency in its special drawing rights (SDR) basket. If indeed China is serious about CNY inclusion in the SDR, it will finally have to reveal its cards, which would mean it finally will provide an update, with a 6 year delay, of just what its latest gold holdings are. As such, don't be surprised to wake up one morning to headlines blasting that Chinese gold holdings have gone up by 2x, 3x, 5x or (more x) since 2009, a long-overdue update which will catalyze the next major leg higher in the precious metal.
Copper Plunge Continues Despite Chinese Stimulus
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015 -
Since China unleashed its latest (and greatest since 2008) RRR cut, stock prices have surged amid the liquidity hype. However, perhaps more indicative of the underlying reality of just what good an RRR cut will do to a debt-saturated economy full of weak credits thanks to tumbling asset prices, copper prices have now plunged over 6% in the last 2 days.
Gold Short term
Once again there is no change to the short term as gold remains in a trade range of 1175-1225. Resistance today is 1209-1214 and then 1225-1231. Support 1182-1192. Until we close above 1212 or under 1180, things are on hold.
 
Gold Cycles
Thus the next two week cycle is underway. Keep in mind that gold is stuck in a trading range and the last cycle just stayed sideways.
We need to break above or below this 1175-1225 trading range.
If we hold the lower dual red support line and the green area of yearly support IN THE 1172-1182 AREA holds and price turns back up and closes above the black dual trend line, we’ll favor that gold is going to move higher. If we don’t pullback and move above the black dual trend line higher first, then we’ll favor a move to the 1225 area and up to 1231 (200 day average) and then we’ll see. If gold can conquer that area, then odds will favor gold moves higher towards 1240-1255.
ANY CLOSE BELOW the dual lower red line and under 1158-1163 will favor a CYCLE inversion and lower prices into the 1st week of May. The 1207-1212 area is resistance and a close above there favors 1225. Support is 1172-1182 and also 1188-1192. Those are the two area’s for a potential low on Tuesday. In summary, the next short term cycle begins now.
HUI
Intermediate Term – Bullish
Moving averages 170.68 -169.57
Up until last week the pattern since the low was choppy and overlapping. However since the April 1st low, price has taken on a more defined uptrend. Perhaps the gold stocks are giving us a clue that the new short term gold cycle into the 1st week of May is going to be an up scenario. We need a close above 185 in order to favor price will head to the gold downtrend line near 195. In summary, short term gold stocks are favored higher into next week. Any close below 168 cancels that scenario.
NUGT
Intermediate Trend –Bullish
Moving Averages – 11.01 - 10.94
In order to take out the last two highs on the chart, NUGT needs a close above 13.00. It has held the moving averages and is probing above that channel line. Unlike the HUI, NUGT’s pattern remains choppy and overlapping. That type of pattern warns us it’s a countertrend move and while it can continue higher, caution is urged.
That would put the 1st target at the 16 dollar area and then we’ll have to see. In summary, for NUGT, watch that trend line and a CLOSE ABOVE 13.00. We got the trendline, now do we get 13.00? That’s where price needs to overcome. ANYTHING LESS THAN THAT and price can turn lower still. On the downside, the moving average and price are at the trend line and that’s the line in the sand. As long as NUGT is above both the bulls have the advantage.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1213 – 1233
The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.
The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.
Seasonal factors are positive for gold in April-May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction. Since the 1142 low last week, things look good, but the real test has not come yet. It will at 1205-1211 and 1222-1225 next. We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.
The moving averages on the chart is the next resistance. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 115.16 – 115.08 – Bullish
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13
While GLD CLOSED BELOW THE MOVING AVERAGES price found support just under it at the trend line and we are right back where we were a couple of days ago. The trend however, is just barely bullish. A close above 116 would favor an upside test of resistance at 117.50 and perhaps to the dual lines at 119-120. For the moment, we wait to exit this trade range.
GDX
Intermediate term Trend 19.30 – 19.23 ~ Bullish
GDX intermediate term remains bullish now since and as long as we hold the support point (moving averages), favor GDX will challenge resistance at 21.50 – 23.00. Any close below the moving averages cancels that scenario.
To a certain extent, GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.
What next?
Look for resistance at 1209-1214 and if exceeded, then 1222-1232.
On the downside any close below 1172 favors lower price into the 1st week of May.
The next short term cycle is underway and if it plays out, we should see gold bottom here and develop higher into next week. When the gold lows are made on the blue cycle, it’s a bullish rotation. When it makes its low on the red cycle, price rallies but odds are that it’s just a bounce. Also, the red cycles are LESS reliable on lows than the blue cycle. In the past there have been some instances where price fails at a resistance area and turns down until the next cycle. It’s not often but it does happen.
Bottom Line
There is a lot of uncertainly with liquidity as well as the potential of a Greek exit. The last time we had a liquidity squeeze (the 2008 crash), gold fell along with everything else but was the first to bottom and a strong rally from 680 to 1900 took place over the next 2.5 years. Thus on the short term there’s not much we can do but wait.
While the medium term trend is down, the medium term moving averages are actually arriving near where 1st resistance resides (1215-1235). In a regular correction off a bear market, a monthly close above those numbers would most often be enough to turn the tide. But this is no ordinary correction. Gold has two major roadblocks above the averages. The downtrend dual gold channel lines give resistance near 1255-1295. For a trend change price needs to conquer those lines and make them support. That would favor the correction in gold is over. (There are a few other things we’ll look for to seek out additional confirmation when the time arrives).
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