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The wholesale market gold price
jumped at the start of New York trade on Thursday, cutting the week's previous
3.3% dive to 5-month lows in half as the euro fell and euro zone stock
markets slumped once again.
The gold price
touched $1,558 per ounce before easing $3 lower. Silver did not
follow, failing to break this morning's earlier dollar high at $27.86 per
ounce.
German Bund yields fell to fresh record lows, but Spain had to offer
investors in new three-year debt an annual yield of 4.37%, up from the 2.89%
charged at the last comparable sale in April.
The European Central Bank confirmed it has ceased working with some Greek
banks because it believes them to be insolvent, while Portugal's Diario Economico
newspaper claimed a joint visit by the ECB, IMF and European Union to assess
Lisbon's €78 billion bail-out will also discuss contigency
plans should Greece quit the single currency.
Greece's interim cabinet of academics, lawyers and diplomats was today
sworn in, pending fresh elections in four weeks' time.
The gold price
in euros jumped 1.9% from Wednesday's low, trading above last week's
closing level.
France's new finance minister, Pierre Moscovici,
today said the socialist government of Françoise Hollande
will not ratify the European Union's fiscal pact agreed by 25 out of 27
member states last December.
Gold's Relative Strength Index – a technical measure of the speed
and size of price change – "is approaching extreme oversold
territory," says the latest technical note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, "but there are no warning signs yet of a
change in trend."
"Gold is definitely in oversold territory, and there should be some
good buying interest around the low in December," Bloomberg quotes Dong Zhuying at Haitong Futures Co.
"Paring its losses near key support at $1,525," says Ed Meir at
Intl FC Stone, the gold price
likely saw "a decent amount of short-covering" by bearish
traders on Wednesday, if not "fresh buying" after it held that
level.
European stock markets fell again Thursday, losing value for the eighth
session out of 11 in May so far and taking Madrid's Ibex 35 index down to a
fresh nine-year low, some 3.4% down on the day.
Crude oil slipped to new six-month lows after data on Wednesday showed US
energy stockpiles more glutted than any time since 1990.
Commenting on gold's 20% drop from last summer's all-time highs, "I
believe gold will become a haven again, especially if you see fragmentation
in the Eurozone," said the World Gold Council's Marcus Grubb to
Bloomberg TV this morning, launching market-development group's latest Gold Demand Trends report.
"Because then you're going to get currency depreciation, you may get
inflation in some countries, deflation in others...and you'll see gold's
attributes as a hedge come to the fore."
In the first quarter of 2012, global gold
investment demand rose 13% by weight and 38% by Dollar value from
the Jan-March period last year, says the report. In the jewelry sector,
"Gold is underpinned now by two large markets and China is playing catch
up to India," says Grubb, also speaking to Reuters this morning.
"Per capita gramme consumption rates are
rising in China."
Acknowledged as the leading authority on global demand and supply
analysis, the World Gold Council says that China's
gold demand again beat India in the first quarter of 2012.
"You're going to see China become the largest gold market overall by
the end of this year for the first time," Grubb believes. "It's
worth remembering that growth rates are still in the 7-8% range. So people
are getting wealthier, and they will continue to buy gold strongly
we believe."
Beijing last month halved the rate of import rates on gold jewelry. So
far in 2012, India has quadrupled its gold
bullion import tax.
After last weekend's cut by China's central bank to the reserve ratio
requirement – easing credit by enabling commercial banks to lend out
more of the cash deposits they take – the State Council of China said
Wednesday it will spend CNY36.3 billion ($5.7bn) over the next 12 months
subsidizing household purchases of large electrical items, fuel-efficient
cars and energy-saving light bulbs.
Despite the cut in the reserve ratio requirement, however, lending by
China's four largest banks has "been flat so far this month" says
the Shanghai
Securities Journal.
Both the central and commercial banks were net sellers of foreign
currency in April, the People's Bank of China said this week, indicating an
outflow of capital.
China's 12-month trade surplus has halved from its peak above $300
billion of early 2009, according to data cited by the Financial
Times.
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