Gold Hits resistance, then tests support only to reverse back up by Bill Downey


	Gold & Silver dump, then Surge, Recover Swiss Gold Poll Losses as EURCHF Hits Lows Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2014 It appears the FX and Precious Metals markets have as much faith in the pre-Swiss Gold Referendum polls as the Scots did before their referendum. Early release of Swiss Gold Referendum poll data that shows a drop from 44% "Yes" to 38% "Yes". The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver (and EURCHF surge), but once the data was released, markets began to creep back - perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time. This surge was also helped by some unusually frank comments on Russian gold buying from the Russian Central Bank. Gold, Silver, and EURCHF have all recovered the moves with the latter pressing towards cycle lows. China Home Price Slump Sends Iron Ore Plunging To 2009 Lows (-50% In 2014) Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2014 Iron Ore prices crashed below the critical $70/mt level overnight, lows not seen since the bottom in 2009, as China's home prices fell for the second month in a row, accelerating losses. Average property prices across China dropped 2.6% YoY in October (a bigger drop than September's 1.2% YoY slip) with only 1 out of 70 cities seeing any positive price change (Zhengzhou +0.2% MoM). What is perhaps most entertaining is the 38.6% YoY rise in new home starts China just experienced - the biggest jump ever - as the first sign of demand (or hint from PBOC that they would 'help' with mortgages) and supply floods the market. The 'market' appears not to believe the hype. Crashing Steel Prices Lead To Largest Chinese Bankruptcy, "Will Be Followed By Others" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2014 With growth rates for steel products at or near record lows and prices for end-product having plunged to record lows, it is little surprise that the Steel industry would provide the largest Chinese bankruptcy yet in this cycle. As Bloomberg reports, unlisted Haixin Iron & Steel - which halted production and defaulted on CNY3 bn in March - has started bankruptcy proceedings. Having spent 8 months hoping for the government bailout that every Western onlooker believes is every firm's god-given right, a reorganization application for the Wenxi, Shanxi province-based company (with $1.7 billion of total debt) was accepted by the Yuncheng City Intermediate People’s Court. This is just the start as "Haixin Group’s bankruptcy will be followed by others," warns one analyst, adding that the major flaw of producers of iron ore, the most traded commodity after oil, is they tend to be “over-bullish.” (Above articles from www.zerohedge.com) Gold Chart Gold dumped this morning and just missed reaching our 1163-1173 2nd resistance support for the day coming in at 1175. As you can see, the market has promptly reversed back up after touching the downtrend line and just missing the green 200 hour moving average. Any close above 1206 today favors a 1218-1222 target. The short term trend remains up. The one thing to be on guard for is the short term cycle window is open and will remain so until Nov 25th. Thus a short term peak in gold is due. Let’s go to the cycles chart. Cycles Today’s drop was just a hair below the black dotted trend line but it has recovered quickly. This still allows gold to reach 1212-1222 on the daily charts. The next short term cycle window is open as the turn is scheduled for Nov 22nd (plus or minus 72 hours). Today puts us in the pre 72 hour window. Gold made a valient attempt to sell off but too many shorts are trapped and the buying back up was within the following hour. If we hold this reversal and close above 1206 odds will favor we extend higher in the cycle as well. We continue to favor higher prices in December and odds favor the 2014 low is in place. A LOT IS GOING TO DEPEND on this current short term cycle. Today is yet another indication that things may have changed on the medium term for gold and our conversations that a year end rally for gold has potential continues to mount credibility. Silver It’s the same story in silver. Prices dropped to our 1585-1602 support coming in at 15.88 right at the middle channel line and at the green 200 hour moving average. Resistance continues to be the 16.60 – 16.70 area. As long as we hold that area, the short term trend is still up.

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