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Let's take a look at what the charts have to say
Gold Cycles and Technicals
The next cycle is due Feb 8th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the cycle opens up by Feb 5th. We pulled back from weekly resistance 1122-1127 hitting 1128 and pulled back to first support, the downtrend line from the October peak at the highest blue cycle on the chart. There's another line underneath that pegs support at 1101-1109 (1095 also). Bottom line, the short term uptrend is still in play, but cycles will be here by the end of next week. We can still pullback a bit more and move back up during mid week next week. We got to 1108 on Friday but reversed back up there so we know there's a band of support at 1101-1109. That's what it comes down to early next week. On the resistance side, look for 1122-1125 and then 1128-1133 where the 200 day average resides. We get above 1145 then look for 1160-1190.
In summary, the 200 day average is the biggest target if the bulls win at 1133. The bears meanwhile would like to get back below 1095. if the cycle plays out, there should be one more push higher (odds 70%).
 
HUI GOLD STOCKS
After 6 months of not making a new low, the HUI index gave way and then did something that should be watched closely, or at least on your radar. Prices reversed and marched right back to a strong resistance area on the chart. The first thing a bear market must do is reverse a new yearly low. It has done that. We should at least make note of it.
Now comes the 1st resistance test and that's the ability to move above the first resistance points of the market. A close above this area would favor the HUI moving to the 140-145 area.
Gold and the short term current price point
The bottom line for next week is we must get above 1133-1143 in order to push higher (1160-1190). As long as we're in the channel, we're in the 2016 uptrend. Support should be 1095-1107. Resistance we have 1122-1127 then the 200 day at 1133 and the November High at 1143. A new MONTH begins Monday.
On a medium term basis, the key is really the moving averages 1119-1138 and the dual down trend line. That is the strongest resistance on the chart and the last solid resistance (medium term) until 1272-1322. This is the price potential if gold can exceed these two most important resistance point until a couple of hundred bucks higher. Key next week also is the November high at 1143. We get a close above there and 1172-1190 would be the target.
On the intermediate term time basis, a Feb high and pullback into March is still the most favored outcome, so watch that cycle turn and the November high.
On a longer term basis
Odds favor the bear market in gold ends Dec 2015-June 2015 (with March as the ideal) in a price range of 850-1050. If the low wasn't December then the Ideal time for it will be in March on the 55th month of the correction.
We needed a close above 1119.50 on Friday to be above the 34 week moving average. We got within 90 cents. But we did not get above it. Is a dollar close enough? Not if we follow the rule. But it should be watched just the same. Nothing is that PRECISE. Nevertheless, we did not get a MONTHLY close above the average. Doesn't mean we won't in February. Suffice to say, this 1130-1145 area in gold is the most important area for a couple hundred dollars.
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