|
1.At the current pace of quantitative easing, Japan's
central bank is buying so many bonds that it now has about 24 months left
before there are no more bonds left to buy.
2.The BOJ is buying close to $800 billion (USD) of bonds
annually.The bank's QE program is truly gargantuan, and Kuroda made a key
speech at Jackson Hole indicating he has no intention of tapering it at all.
3.Please click here now. Gold is extremely
well-supported now, by both equity fund and FOREX money managers.
4.Kuroda hinted at Jackson Hole that while he won't taper
QE, he has substantial room to increase the use of his negative rates
program.He's making another key speech next Monday, and I expect him to make
it clear that as enormous as his QE program is, he's going to lower
interest rates further, and make it even more important policy than QE.
5.The US jobs report is scheduled for release this Friday
at 8:30AM.When Janet Yellen hiked rates last December, a huge institutional
panic out of stock markets and the dollar developed.
6.These institutions surged into gold and the yen.A big
jobs report number is likely to spur Janet to unveil a second rate hike at
the September 21 FOMC meeting.
7.This is probably the most important jobs report of the
entire year, and Janet's reaction to it could begin a major stock market and
US dollar crash.
8.The September and October timeframe is what I call
"US stock market crash season".The worst stock market
crashes have historically occurred during these months, and Friday's jobs
report has the potential to create another one.
9.Gold price enthusiasts should pay keen attention to all
the upcoming speeches made by key players at both the BOJ and the Fed.Those
speeches and policy decisions are likely to create important changes on the
charts that gold market technicians focus on.
10.On that note, please click here now. Double-click to
enlarge this daily bars gold chart.Ahead of the US jobs report, gold is
likely to briefly decline to the $1310 area or a bit lower, but Kuroda's
speech on Monday is likely to bring in fresh buying.The bottom line:
11.If the jobs report shows not many new jobs were
created, gold is likely to rally nicely.If the report shows lots of jobs were
created, Janet is likely to hike rates and create panic buying of gold as the
stock market tumbles.It's truly win-win for the Western gold community at
this point in time.
12.Indian buying has also started to pick up again, and
Chinese New Year buying begins in December.
13.Please click here now. Double click to
enlarge this daily bars T-bond chart.There are a few different ways to
interpret this chart, but it's beginning to look like a big double top
pattern may be forming, with highs in the 175 area, and the neckline at about
168.
14.Please click here now.Double-click to enlarge
this daily bars oil chart.The T-bond took a bit of a tumble after Janet's
first rate hike, but then it acted as a safe haven.
15.That's because the oil rally from about $34 to $53 was
not an inflationary concern.Janet can justify a September rate hike with a
good jobs report, but if oil begins a fresh rally higher, she may find that
institutional money managers begin losing confidence in her ability to keep
the T-bond price elevated in the face of a rise in inflation.
16.Low rates are crushing bank profit growth in Japan,
Europe, and America.An oil price surge can create a major problem for central
bankers in these areas; rate hikes help bank profits, but raise the risk that
governments may lose control of their enormous debt servicing costs.
17.The PBOC could announce a major yuan devaluation if
Janet hikes rates in September, and that could potentially unleash the type
of stock market crash that occurred in 1929.It's clear that risks are growing
in a myriad of ways, and gold is the safe haven beacon that shines brightest.
18.Also, Janet is faced with a US election, a French
election, an Italian referendum, as well as the "meat and potatoes"
of the Brexit.
19.At Jackson Hole, she discussed the possibility of
negative interest rates and new forms of QE as tools to manage the next US
economic recession.The use of these tools is more good news for gold.
20.Please click here now.Double-click to enlarge
this daily bars silver chart.Solid support sits just below the current price
level.Note the nice "bull hook" that is taking shape on the
Stochastics oscillator, at the bottom of the chart.
21.Silver is one of the greatest assets of all time,
second only to gold on the greatness scale.Price enthusiasts can be buyers in
the $18.50 - $16 zone.I'm one of those enthusiasts!
22.Please click here now.Double-click to enlarge
this daily bars GDX chart.This price correction is a bit different from the
other corrections that have occurred in 2016.
23.That's because of the enormous importance of Jackson
Hole, the jobs report, and the upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings.There is some
clear technical damage, and GDX is unlikely to make new rally highs until
after the September central bank meetings.
24.The current area is a buying zone for eager gold stock
investors, but where the correction low occurs will be determined by Janet
& Kuroda, not by technicians looking at the GDX price chart.Note the
extremely low position of my Stochastics indicator, at the bottom of the
chart.It suggests that gold stocks are poised to rally strongly, and that is
likely to happen right after Friday's jobs report is released!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
https://www.gracelandupdates.com
https://gracelandjuniors.com
www.guswinger.com
Email:
stewart@gracelandupdates.com
stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
stewart@guswinger.com
Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker.
Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out
around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a
unique numbered point form.Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable
reading time.
Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor.
The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general
information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is
imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and
qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any
action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all
your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in
investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is
highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There
is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion
written off officially. The bottom line:
Are You Prepared?
|
|
