Until recently, the world has forgotten about gold and gold futures prices
it would seem. A few years ago, all we heard about was gold and silver futures
making new highs on the back of the Federal Reserve's constant money printing
schemes. However, after a dramatic selloff the world of precious metals it
became very quiet.
Gold prices have been in a giant basing or consolidation pattern for more
than one year. As can clearly be seen below, gold futures prices have traded
in a range between roughly 1,175 and 1,430 since June of 2013.
The past few weeks we have heard more about gold prices as we have seen a
five week rally since late May. I would also draw your attention to the fact
that gold futures also made a slightly higher low which is typically a bullish
signal.
At this point in time, it appears quite likely that a possible test of the
upper end of the channel is possible in the next few weeks / months. If price
can push above 1,430 on the spot gold futures price a breakout could transpire
that could see $150 or more added to the spot gold price.
Clearly there are a variety of ways that a trader could consider higher prices
in gold futures. However, a basic option strategy can pay handsome rewards
that will profit from a continued consolidation. The trade strategy is profitable
as long as price stays within a range for a specified period of time. Ultimately
this type of trade strategy involves the use of options and capitalizes on
the passage of time.
The strategy is called an Iron Condor Strategy, however in order to make this
trade worth while we would consider widening out the strikes to increase our
profitability while simultaneously increasing our overall risk per spread.
Consider the chart of GLD below which has highlighted the price range that
would be profitable to the August monthly option expiration on August 15th.
As long as price stays in the range shown above, the GLD August Iron Condor
Spread would be profitable. Clearly this strategy involves patience and the
expectation that gold prices will continue to consolidate. This trade has the
profit potential of $37 per spread, or a total potential return based on maximum
possible risk of 13.62%. The probability based on today's implied volatility
in GLD options for this spread to be profitable at expiration (August 15) is
roughly 80%.
Our new option service specializes in identifying these types of consolidation
setups and helps investors capitalize on consolidating chart patterns, volatility
collapse, and profiting from the passage of time. And if you Advanced options
trades are not your thing, we also provide Simple options where we buy either
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