Gold Pause Would Be Healthy, Bitcoin Price update

August Gold’s attempt to reverse from a morning sell-off prompted a subscriber to ask in the Rick’s Picks trading room whether bullion is already getting second wind.  I doubt it, since June’s sensational run-up was too steep to sustain and will likely require a breather of perhaps 2-3 weeks to recharge. But I do expect the uptrend to resume after a proper pullback because this month’s surge decisively exceeded clear Hidden Pivot resistances at 1412 and 1432. This is usually a reliable sign that the dominant trend will continue, and it is quite clear in this instance.  Because the pattern took ten months to play out, it would be surprising — and quite bullish — if the futures do a ‘180’ and blow past the 1432.70 peak within the next few days. Anything’s possible, so we’ll simply wait for gold to do its thing and to tell us what’s on its mind.

The lunatics are back, pushing bitcoin with the same psychotic zeal they showed blowing the 2017 bubble. I am updating with a new target at 21,032 that is based on a slightly revised rally pattern (inset). Judging from the way buyers impaled the pattern’s 12083 midpoint resistance today, it seems extremely unlikely this surge will fall short of the target. I try to avoid the use of the word ‘extremely’, but in this case my confidence that 21,032 will be achieved is close to absolute.

When I originally projected a move to 19,850, BRTI, a CME index that tracks bid/asked spreads in real time across many bitcoin markets, was trading for around 8,000. That was a little more than a week ago, and I could not have imagined at the time that we’d be halfway there so soon. I doubt that BRTI will cover the remaining distance as quickly, but if it does, it will describe a mania with a lifespan more meaningfully measured with a stopwatch than a calendar. If the Hidden Pivot resistance at 21,032 fails to stop the stampede — an outcome I regard as unlikely —  I’ll be out of good targets to share with you.

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