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Gold Daily Report ~ May 11 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Neutral – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.
Initial Resistance 1195-1205 2nd tier 1209-1212
Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1163
The last update listed resistance at 1195-1205 and the high was 1193. Support was listed 1172-1182 and the low was 1178.
Gold Short term
Price is trying to hold the 1172-1182 area. This is the yearly opening range (1172-1182) we've discussed as a most important pivot for this year and price continues to converge at that price point.
With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up. The moving average at 1194-1196 is a closing price resistance, but the black dotted resistance line at 1195 and the Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1205 is the spot to watch on Monday if prices begin a very short term upside in price. Support lies at the lower black dotted uptrend lines (1172-1182) and then 1158-1163 and 1142-1152.
With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth.
ODDS FAVOR THAT GOLD ESTABLISHES THE NEXT TREND into mid month once it breaks either above or below the short term channel lines on the chart.
 
CYCLES
The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). If the cycle plays out then gold should move higher to mid-May. But be careful, this messy chop can continue and price could just as soon break down. It’s best to wait until price comes out of this range before putting our faith back in the short term cycle.
In order for the upside to have a chance to take hold we need a close above 1197-1205. If we do get the up cycle into 18th of the month, then resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240. A close below the 1168 low of 2 weeks ago would cast doubt on upside potential for this cycle and would be suggestive that we move lower into mid-month.
HUI
Intermediate Term – NEUTRAL
Moving averages – 177.87 -176.82
The shorter term trend is NEUTRAL.
We discussed a close below 168 would have to favor lower into mid May and probably that the spring seasonal is over. Note how the low last week was 168. That’s the short term line in the sand. Resistance now is the 176-178 area (moving averages) and then the gold trend line at 192.
Unless HUI closes back above the yellow trend line on the chart below, the potential of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern on the chart is something we have to keep in mind. The Friday action brought price back to the moving averages and we must close above them in order to favor further upside to the yellow line. The other support besides the mentioned 168 area is the lower white line in the 158-162 area. Overall the trend at the moment is neutral and price is trapped in a trade range with the 150-160 area on the lower end and 192-212 on the upside. Gold stocks usually get one more bout of weakness into the end of June or July. Not every year, but certainly most often.
The one thing we don’t like is the pattern since March. It’s choppy and overlapping and that means odds heavily favor this is a counter trend move or bounce and that the main trend at the moment still remains down. Choppy and overlapping trends can continue higher in the grinding fashion we’ve seen over the past 6 weeks. The problem with them is that they tend to end abruptly and without warning and then turn down.
For now, the MOVING AVERAGES are the place to watch Monday. As long as we remain below them, price can still turn down into mid month.
NUGT
Intermediate Trend –Neutral
Moving Averages – 11.98 – 11.87
After testing the channel line near 10 as forecasted last week, price has come back to the moving averages and that is the first area that we must close above (1225) in order to have a chance at closing above 14. That is the number which we must close above in order to favor higher towards 16-17.
A close below white trend line puts the short term potential lower towards 8.80.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223
The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.
The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.
Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.
We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.
The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 114.49– 114.68 – NEUTRAL
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13
GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.
GDX
Intermediate term Trend 19.97 – 19.88 ~ Bullish
GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.
Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.
GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.
What next?
We begin the week with price on the short term chart in the middle of the trend lines. Watch for direction above or below them and then watch from 1197-1205 as resistance today. Weekly resistance is the 1212-1215 and 1220-1225 price points.
On the downside a close below the lower trend line would not be good but there is some support at 1168-1172. If that gives a close below 1163 favors 1142-1150 and potentially more.
The next short term cycle is underway but price has not made its decision as to the direction into the 18th of this month. It should be a higher cycle but recall on the weekly report that chart that shows the 2005 trend line. The decision as to whether price holds or not will decide on the next medium term move in gold. For six months we have been touching the trend line but we haven’t broken it yet. If it gives way, it won’t surprise me to see 1000 dollar gold at some point this year.
Bottom Line
As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop. That means we can trade at the upper or lower range in price at a moment’s notice and A SELLOFF CAN ALSO Take place at any time.
Watch that 1172-1182 area. It needs to hold.
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