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These
days, a lot is going on in the world. All those events have a big impact on
the price of Stocks, commodities, bonds,... Let's have a look at the major
trends in Gold, Silver and Mining stocks.
GLD
touched the 150MA yesterday. In the past, this level often acted as support
as we can see in the chart below:
 
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
GLD
also tested the breakout above the green resistance line that was in place
since 2008.
The
weekly MACD also tested this green line:
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
When
we look at ANV (Allied Nevada Gold), we can see that price hit the lower
bollinger band yesterday, where it found support. Price managed to close
slightly above the 220EMA, where it found support in the past. If price
manages to move away from the lower Bollinger Band, this would be very
Bullish. If it fails to do so, it would be very Bearish, and we would expect
a waterfall decline.
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
The
HUI index looks set to retest the green breakout line, which has been in
place since 2008.
However,
there is also a bearish Broadening Pattern in play, which, could lead to
(much) lower prices:
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
Silver
failed to close sustainably above the middle Bollinger Band (20MA), which is
bearish. Support is to be found at the lower Bollinger Band, while resistance
is to be found at the middle Bollinger Band, followed by the upper Bollinger
Band, which is also last weeks highs around $31.5-$32. If price fails to
close sustainably above the middle BB, look out below.
Chart courtesy stockcharts.com
The
COT reports for silver look very bullish, as the Commercials have cut their
Net Short positions to Bull market low levels. I highlighted each low with a
green square. Have a look at the Silver price following each square.
everytime during this bull market, silver rallied when the Commercials' Net
Short Positions were this low.
When
we look at the Commercials' Net Short Position as a % of Open Interest
(CNSP%OI), we can notice that during the entire bull market, this % always
kept setting lower highs. The CNSP%OI also reached bull market lows right
now, confirming the findings in the chart above:
In
my search for value, I came across this interesting chart (from April 2011)
from Hubert Moolman:
This
chart shows the JSE Gold Index versus the Gold price measured in South
African Rand.
We
can see that the JSE Gold Index is yet to break out to new highs after a
decade long consolidation.
- Chart courtesy Hubert Moolman
When
I was looking for historical data for the JSE Gold Index, mr. Moolman was
kind enough to tell me that Gold Fields (in South African Rand) is a good
proxy for the JSE Gold Index, which appears to be true, as we can see in the
chart below:
Are
South African Miners about to skyrocket higher after nearly a decade long
consolidation, despite higher Gold prices? Time will tell. They look ready to
fly.
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