Gold trades near 1200 at options expiration day

Gold Daily Report ~ Nov 24, 2014

Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and monthly basis to neutralize the downtrend
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish-Short term cycle window now open (Nov 22nd – plus or minus 72 hours).
Short Term ~ Bullish- Short term cycle window now open (Nov 22nd – plus or minus 72 hours).

Initial Resistance 1204-1212 2nd tier 1218-1222
Initial Support 1182-1192 2nd tier 1168-1176

The last update listed resistance at 1199-1206 and the high was 1207. Support was listed at 1177-1187 and the low was 1186 in spot gold.


Key today is options expiration and thus the 1200 area is the pivot point today.

Short term Gold
Resistance on Monday is 1204-1212 and then 1218-1222. Support is the 1182-1192 area and then 1168-1176 zone.

As long as we are above the moving averages, the trend remains bullish. Keep in mind we have reached the 1st target 1199-1206 last week and here also on Monday morning so a bit more caution should be observed. With that said, it is not out of the question to see 1219-1222. We are testing the blue moving average this morning. Additional support is the green moving average and the spot where the red and black dotted trend lines reside. The trend lines are where the greatest weekly support resides this week.

The price patterns has hints of choppy and overlapping and that is usually indications that this is a countertrend move. That doesn’t mean we can’t go higher but we should be on guard. Odds favor we will stick around and near 1200 during the morning hours and then we’ll see what gold has in mind. If the short term cycle is in play we should see a move towards 1170 this week.



CYCLES
The Gold cycle short term due date of Nov 22nd (plus or minus 72 hours) window opened today and it’s very possible we’ve got a peak in for this cycle. It is still possible that there is one more peak higher due into and near the 25th. There are three options of consideration because the MEDIIUM term cycle is approaching (Dec 23rd – plus or minus 2.5 weeks).

Commentary follows after the chart.



Gold Cycles continued

The first is the short term cycle is going to peak and either move sideways or lower or both into and around the Dec 6th (plus or minus 72 hour period) before it mounts its next move higher into the medium term cycle.

The second is a cycle inversion is going to move metals higher yet another two weeks from here and we will be on a red cycle top and that would be bearish for the metals. Odds are only about 30% for this option at the moment. But we must say the one thing this bear market has shown us is that it has given out cycle inversions since March 2013 to now equal to what we usually over 3 to 4 years time.

The key this week is if prices remain sideways then it’s possible to cycle invert. Odds are around 30%.


HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bullish
Intermediate Term Moving Averages 162.93 – 164.48

The HUI remains above the moving averages and that trend line above 160 and thus the intermediate term trend remains bullish. The question now is whether we continue to pullback or if we just charge higher. A pullback to 160 would find support. Next resistance is 184-187. Price could still be heading for the green channel lines in the 206-220 area but it could be a pullback to the moving averages first. When tax selling season sets in during December, will the gold stocks get yet another plunge? For now a pullback towards 160 can develop into early December, but the overall trend remains up.




NUGT
Intermediate Trend – Bullish
Moving Averages – 12.90 – 13.52

NUGT has pulled back to the moving averages. Now we see if we hold. As long as we do, odds favor we’re heading for the 22 area. If not, we correct into Dec 6th and then make a press higher. Support is the 12.50-13.50 area.



Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1458 – 1524

Medium Term Trend ~Bearish  1268 - 1288.   Gold needs a monthly close above 1288 to return to a bullish mode.

The long term chart does not favor this area to be the final low for gold as there are no long term trend lines in this area. The ideal low at this moment would be where the down trending gold line intersects with the first of three red lines near 1000. Resistance right now is in the 1207-1225 area and then 1255 on a medium term basis. The trend is still down but a medium term counter-trend rally is most likely in play.




GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 112.76 – 113.34 - Bullish
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20

GLD pulled right back into the moving averages and now we find out if the short term cycle has peaked or not. A close below 112.50 puts GLD out of bullish mode. Until then, the trend is up on the shorter term timeframes. It is still possible to get a rally to the 116.50-119.50 area.



GDX
Intermediate term Trend 18.37 -18.47 ~ Bullish

GDX has support in the 18.37-1847 area and resistance at 22.50-23.50. Whether we pull back to the moving averages first or not, odds favor we’re going to move higher in December.



What Next?
Gold has reached our first target of 1199-1206 on Friday and Monday morning and it’s possible we can still move to 1218-1222. However we need to be a bit more cautious now as the short term cycle is here (Nov 22nd plus or minus 72 hours) and the window of time is open until Wednesday. So let’s be very careful when we speak the short term.

Once the peak is in, we should pull back into the Dec 6th area and then get another push into year end. That has a 70% probability. If we just go sideways this week, it’s possible that we hold up and continue higher. If we move down towards 1168-1176 that area has the highest probability of giving us the low for the week.

Bottom Line
Gold looks to have made its yearly low at 1130 and the medium term rally we discussed a few weeks back into year end and perhaps into February looks to be in play. While odds do not favor that gold has made its final low, it does favor a medium term rally.