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Gold Daily Report ~ April 30 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Neutral– Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.
Initial Resistance 1212-1222 2nd tier 1228-1231
Support 1189-1195 2nd tier 1178-1183
The last update listed resistance at 1205-1212 and the high was 1215. Support was listed at 1189-1195 and the low was 1200.
Gold Short term
Resistance on Wednesday will be the 1214-1222.. Support is 1189-1195 and 1178-1183. . We remain in a trade range of 1175-1225. As long as we are in the trade range, it can go either way.
 
CYCLES
The next short term cycle is due May 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). The window for a turn opens after the Thursday close.
It’s not often, but with this much of a choppy mess we are hard pressed to decipher the current rotation. It’s a coin toss at this point.
A close above the red line and the 200 day average near 1230 would argue for a short term
HUI
Intermediate Term – Bullish
Moving averages - 175.05 -172.71
The moving averages withstood the pullback test so far but the high yesterday reversed and closed on the low. That still leaves the direction ambiguous.
NUGT
Intermediate Trend –Bullish
Moving Averages – 11.54 – 11.24
It’s the same with NUGT. We closed above 13 but reversed lower. The trend is still up but be cautious.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1210 – 1230
The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.
The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.
Seasonal factors are positive for gold in April-May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.
We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.
The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 115.10 – 115.12 – NEUTRAL
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13
GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113.
GDX
Intermediate term Trend 19.66 – 19.47 ~ Bullish
GDX intermediate term remains bullish.
Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.
GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.
What next?
The FOMC results yielded nothing. The direction is still not certain.
Bottom Line
As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop.
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