Up-date N° 31 / June 15, 2013
| Gold/Ounces in US$ |
| Buy Date |
Amount |
Buy Price |
Total (USD) |
Price Today |
Value Today |
| November 7, 2002 |
100/oz. |
318.90 |
|
|
|
| Total |
100/oz. |
318.90 |
31‘890 |
1392 |
139'200 |
| Profit |
|
|
|
|
107'310 |
| Profit (in %) |
|
|
|
|
336.5% |
| OUR LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATION |
|
|
BUY |
|
| OUR SHORT-TERM RECOMMENDATION |
|
|
BUY |
|
1980 to 2013: From bear to bull
A drop of the gold price to $ 500/ounce is highly unlikely in view
of the sharply rising National Debt in the USA but also in Europe.
To quote John Hathaway, manager of one of a most respected gold fund, a
sharp rise of the gold price is more likely:
"With gold and silver under continued attack from the mainstream media, John
Hathaway warned King World News that we are at the point where global investors
will be shocked as gold is quickly repriced a jaw-dropping $1,000 higher,
taking gold to new all-time highs.
Hathaway also cautioned that global markets are rapidly approaching a loss
of confidence in central banks which will cause tremendous turmoil in the
paper currency markets. Hathaway, of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., is
one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today regarding
gold, and his fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating."
The long-term picture of the bull market since 2001
The bull market of the gold price started towards the beginning of 2002. On
the way from $ 255.3 to the recent intraday all-time high of $ 1,923.7 (an
increase of 650%), several significant corrections took place, the most severe
one in 2008 when the gold price sank by 30% only to jump 182% to a new all-time
high.
The bull market is not over! The gold price is in an oversold position, as
shown above, which is far worse than in 2008 or even in 2000. Such extremes
have always been followed by strong movements to the up-side. After 2008,
gold rose almost 200% while gold shares jumped 400%.
What the PMO Indicator shown above clearly demonstrates: extremes will always
be corrected. In fact, we had great sell opportunities in 2006, 2008 and 2011.
On the reverse side, 2001 and 2008 were unique buying opportunities.
At present, we again have such a buying opportunity! This is not the time
to stay on the side-lines. You have to buy now!
Should you rather buy gold shares instead of gold?
First, there are a few basic facts that one has to know:
- Gold stocks are more volatile than gold.
- It is hard work to select the right companies and to monitor them.
- You should know the Management.
- You should have a long-term view.
As most do not have the time to devote several hours a day
- to employ a bottom-up selection process and fundamental, proprietary research
to identify companies that are considered undervalued, based on growth
potential and the assessment of the company's relative value, and
- to seek exposure to overlooked and undervalued gold stocks across the
world,
this work is best left to an experienced fund manager. The following
chart reveals the risk and rewards of such investment:
Gold sometimes outperform gold shares, at times however gold shares fare much
better? Following some figures:
- GOLD 2000 to 2011 (high): +652%
- GOLD SHARES 2000 to 2011 (high): +1,331%
- GOLD 2000 to 2013: +416%
- GOLD SHARES 2000 to 2013: +514%
- GOLD 2011 (high) to 2013: -31%
- GOLD SHARES 2011 (high) to 2013: -57%
Big companies or rather "juniors"?
- Every big company was once a "junior"! See Goldcorp.!
- Selecting the right "junior" is high risk. It makes therefore sense to
choose a Fund that invests in "juniors" to diminish the risk.
- To find out more, go to www.timeless-funds.com
Conclusion
To quote John Hathaway once more: "So from a contrarian point of view, the
setup is perfect for the commencement of a huge upward leg that will take
gold and silver to all-time highs."
How to invest: http://www.timeless-funds.com/en/timeless-pre...etal-how-invest
Disclosure: The author has not been paid to write this
article, nor has he received any other inducement to do so.
Disclaimer: The author's objective in writing this article
is to invoke an interest on the part of potential investors in this stock
to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent
research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed
as a solicitation to buy or sell this stock.
Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified
investment advisor before entering into any transactions in the stock - or
to use their own brains.
In our opinion, the best approach is to buy a diversified portfolio
of stocks as represented in THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND or THE SIERRA
MADRE GOLD & SILVER VENTURE CAPITAL FUND instead of shares of only a small
number of companies.
