I would have loved to have predicted the Brexit vote with confidence. But
I didn’t. Instead I predicted a 52-48 win for Remain.
However, I did repeatedly warn (to no avail) to Matt Singh and others
counting on “history”, that counting on history was a bad idea.
Comments Ahead of the Vote
In my final post before the vote I noted Last Four Brexit Polls Split: Turnout of Age 18-35 Likely
the Key.
Turnout was indeed the key, but I also questioned the methodology of the
latest polls.
Likelihood to Vote
In ORB’s final poll, not only did the likelihood of the two most likely
age groups to vote Remain rise dramatically, the likelihood of the most
likely age group to vote Leave fell.
On top of that, ORB imputed a 3-1 advantage for Remain on most undecided
voters, leaving a mere 2% truly “undecided”.
What Happened?
What happened is all the polls that got it wrong last time, changed their
methodology in belief that Matt Singh, was the the latest all-knowing God,
just as Nate Silver was in the US.
Neither Nate Silver, nor Matt Singh responded to numerous emails or
Tweets. My Tweets to Singh were not combative (until after vote), and in many
cases I simply asked polite questions because I did not understand his
methods or terminology.
That ORB poll was ridiculous. I called it at the time. Undecideds suddenly
became a 3-1 favorite for Remain, based on “history”.
Both Nate Silver and Matt Singh had more faith in history than changes in
attitudes.
My mistake, and I made one, was believing pollsters at the end, when it
was clear they changed their methodology to accommodate history, just as Matt
Singh, like Nate Silver before him did.
At any rate, I take pride in pointing out the odds were much closer than
the pollsters and the likes of those counting on history had you believe.
Anyone confident of victory and was correct, went out on a limb. No one
knew this outcome. Anyone whom tells you they did know the outcome is a fool
or a charlatan.
That said, I do get to gloat on one thing: my repeated calls that the odds
were way wrong and those who had faith in the betting odds bookies offered
and Matt Singh verified were way wrong.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
