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How Fed Policy Distorts Home Prices

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Published : December 06th, 2012
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Category : Crisis Watch





I’ve about had it with how giddy a large portion of the U.S. population has become about rising home prices.

Don’t get me wrong, when first thinking about this, I was about as happy as anyone else to learn that property values are now rising sharply again since, after renting for six years, my wife and I finally bought a house about two years ago. So, we stand to benefit as much as anyone else.

But, when you look at what’s driving home prices higher and how unnatural and unsustainable those factors are, suddenly the headlines sound more ominous than optimistic.

The glee of Diane Sawyer and David Muir was nearly uncontrollable on ABC News last night as they detailed the latest findings from Corelogic showing that home prices rose by over 6 percent from a year ago.

This video is the closest that I could find at ABC News, but you get the idea.

This LA Times report detailed the findings of a UCLA Anderson Forecast study that indicated the “housing market is becoming the leading source of strength for the long-sluggish American economic recovery“.

On the surface, this sounds like a good thing, but not when you examine what’s driving home prices.

Yes, low inventory is a big factor behind the home price surge as the flood of foreclosures has slowed to a trickle while strong investor demand and growing confidence amongst American consumers have surely tipped the scales in favor of higher prices. But, it is today’s freakishly low interest rates – engineered by the Federal Reserve – that have clearly played the biggest role in pushing home prices higher, simply because most people buy a house based on the monthly mortgage payment, not the purchase price.

And when you see the impact record low rates have on purchase prices, you might be as concerned as I am.



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Tim Iacono is the founder of Iacono Research, a subscription service providing market commentary and investment advisory services specializing in commodity based investing.
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