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Despite the undue attention that has been paid to the chimera of
inflation this year, it should be clear by now that deflation is the far
greater structural problem. One clue that deflation, not inflation, is the
main issue can be seen in the biggest form of savings and investment among
the U.S. middle class, namely real estate.
Real estate is an excellent asset to own during the inflationary phase
of the long-term cycle of inflation/deflation but it’s one of the worst
assets to own during hyper deflation. As an illiquid asset, housing prices
tend to depreciate in the final years of the deflationary winter season, as
many have discovered. This is one of the biggest proofs that the economic
long wave, or Kondratieff Wave, is still in its
deflationary phase and hasn’t bottomed yet.
Consider the following real estate prognosis from Doug Ramsey, an
analyst with the Minneapolis investment firm Leuthold
Group. Ramsey has calculated that single-family housing starts would have to
increase from 60 to 70 percent from their current 50-year low of 419,000
annual rate just to reach the average low of the
past six housing busts since 1960. Needless to say this would be asking a lot
for even an energetic housing market.
Ramsey, who is an avid student of financial history and has studied
numerous financial bubbles, has said that every housing statistic he follows
has so far matched the price pattern following the bursting of other asset
bubbles. According to Ramsey, asset bubble collapses tend to follow a similar
pattern, including most famously the 1929 stock market crash and
Japan’s 1989 Nikkei crash. He says it starts with a steep decline
lasting three to four years followed by a brief rally that is followed by
years of stagnation. He points out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took
35 years to return to pre-crash levels. Japan’s Nikkei stock market
index, meanwhile, trades at less than a third of its 1989 peak.
Ramsey concludes, “The housing decline will be a long, multiyear
process, and the multiplier effect across the economy will be
enormous.” Until housing prices bottom investors are safe in assuming
that deflation is the dominant trend underscoring the economy,
notwithstanding occasional periods of Fed-induced (QE) pockets of inflation.
Many investors have asked, “If deflation is the main problem
facing the economy, why should I own gold?” Gold, they reason, is an
inflationary hedge and if that be so, how can it possibly benefit from
deflation?
Gold is more than an inflationary hedge, however. As Samuel Kress has
shown in his cycle work, gold benefits from both extremes of the 60-year
cycle, namely hyper inflation and hyper deflation.
During the inflationary period of the current 60-year cycle in the 1970s,
gold benefited from the extreme inflation as the cycle was peaking. In more
recent times gold has benefited from deflation while the cycle is declining.
Consequently, investors look to the precious metal for financial safety in
times of uncertainty.
Gold has in fact become the new long-term investment vehicle of choice
for retail investors. Traditional forms of savings such as real estate have
become depreciating assets and no longer offer protection against the ravages
of the long-term cycle. Meanwhile savers are punished with extremely low
interest rates while the value of the currency diminishes through central
bank money printing schemes. It’s no wonder then that investors are
turning to the yellow metal as the safe haven du jour during the
“winter” season of the 60-year/120-year cycle.
Gold is in the unique position of benefiting from Fed-driven
inflation, as the recent quantitative easing program proved. Yet it also
derives strength from uncertainty in the global financial and economic
outlook. Certainly there have been more than a few instances of this in
recent years. A survey of the year-to-date alone would suffice to provide
enough examples of how gold has benefited by the recurrence of worry. The
current worry among investors is how a potential Greek debt default would
impact global markets. In the last few days since this worry has made
headlines, the gold price has managed to climb from its June correction low
of $1,483 to its latest high of $1,563.
 
The current leadership of the Federal Reserve are
committed to fighting against the forces of long wave deflation and have
shown a steely determination in carrying out an anti-deflationary policy.
This can be clearly seen in the Fed’s first and second
“quantitative easing” programs, a dignified term for fighting
deflationary pressure by increasing debt. The latest round of quantitative
easing (QE) ended on June 30, yet on Tuesday, July 12, the Fed released the
minutes of its June meeting and hinted that a third round of QE may be in the
offing. The minutes suggested that most members of the Fed’s board of
governors would favor another round of QE if the economy continues to show
signs of weakening. This may have been one reason behind gold’s spike
to new highs on Tuesday.
Gold should ultimately benefit from either course of action, whether
it be the uncertainty that accompanies long wave
deflation or the artificial boost in asset prices brought about by quantitative
easing. This is one reason why gold remains the investment safe haven du jour
in the final years of the deflationary cycle.
Gold & Gold Stock Trading Simplified
With the long-term bull market in gold and mining stocks in full
swing, there exist several fantastic opportunities for capturing profits and
maximizing gains in the precious metals arena. Yet a common complaint is that
small-to-medium sized traders have a hard time knowing when to buy and when
to take profits. It doesn’t matter when so many pundits dispense
conflicting advice in the financial media. This amounts to “analysis
into paralysis” and results in the typical investor being unable to
“pull the trigger” on a trade when the right time comes to buy.
Not surprisingly, many traders and investors are looking for a
reliable and easy-to-follow system for participating in the precious metals
bull market. They want a system that allows them to enter without guesswork
and one that gets them out at the appropriate time and without any undue risks.
They also want a system that automatically takes profits at precise points
along the way while adjusting the stop loss continuously so as to lock in
gains and minimize potential losses from whipsaws.
In my latest book, “Gold & Gold Stock Trading Simplified,”
I remove the mystique behind gold and gold stock trading and reveal a
completely simple and reliable system that allows the small-to-mid-size
trader to profit from both up and down moves in the mining stock market.
It’s the same system that I use each day in the Gold & Silver Stock
Report – the same system which has consistently generated profits for
my subscribers and has kept them on the correct side of the gold and mining
stock market for years. You won’t find a more
straight forward and easy-to-follow system that actually works than
the one explained in “Gold & Gold Stock Trading Simplified.”
The technical trading system revealed in “Gold & Gold Stock
Trading Simplified” by itself is worth its weight in gold.
Additionally, the book reveals several useful indicators that will increase
your chances of scoring big profits in the mining stock sector. You’ll
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stocks are about o break out. After all, nothing
beats being on the right side of a market move before the move gets underway.
The methods revealed in “Gold & Gold Stock Trading
Simplified” are the product of several year’s worth of writing, research and real
time market trading/testing. It also contains the benefit of my 14 years worth of experience as a professional in the
precious metals and PM mining share sector. The trading techniques discussed
in the book have been carefully calibrated to match today’s fast moving
and volatile market environment. You won’t find a more timely and
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stock market.
The book is now available for sale at:
http://www.clifdroke.com/books/trading_simplified.html
Order today to receive your autographed copy
and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Gold & Silver Stock Report
newsletter. Published twice each week, the newsletter uses the method
described in this book for making profitable trades among the actively traded
gold mining shares.
Clif Droke
Editor, The Daily Durban Deep/XAU Report
Clifdroke.com
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