Huge Plunge In Mortgage Cure Rates Portends Foreclosure Disaster

IMG Auteur
Published : August 25th, 2009
470 words - Reading time : 1 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Editorials

 

 

 

 

Mortgage cure rates have fallen off a cliff. For those unfamiliar with the term, a "cure rate" pertains to those who go delinquent on loans then catch up and become current. Late payments that don't "cure" have a tendency to get later and later over time, before they eventually default.

Fitch ratings notes
Cure Rates Plunge Among Prime RMBS.

According to Fitch, cure rate on prime mortgages plunged to 6.6% from an average 45% during 2000-2006. Alt-A cure rates plunged to 4.3% from an average 30.2% and subprime cure rates fell to 5.% from an average 19.4%.

A couple of charts can help put this in context. Here is a chart from
Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures.

Pent Up Foreclosures By State




click on chart for sharper image

In regards to the above chart I said.

 

The area in pink represents potential foreclosure demand. Not all of that area will be foreclosed, but some of it sure will. The "Hidden Backlog" mentioned above (and highlighted in red) is within that pink area.

One thing missing from the chart is pent-up demand from those who are not delinquent yet have a huge incentive to walk because of massive negative equity.

For a look at "negative equity", moratoriums, and other foreclosure issues please see
Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break.

 

With the new data from Fitch let's take a second look using another chart from Calculated Risk's post MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak at End of 2010.

Prime Delinquencies and Foreclosures




click on chart for sharper image

In 2006 less than 3% of prime loans were delinquent and nearly half of them cured. Currently close to 6.5% of prime mortgages are delinquent (another 3% are in foreclosure). Worse yet, the cure rate is miserable. Even reworked loans quickly sink back into delinquency.

A key reason for the falling cure rates pertains to underwater mortgages. In 2006, someone might easily have had positive equity in their home and sold it (curing the loan). Most in trouble now do not have positive equity and cannot sell.

Of the 6.5% delinquent, the current cure rate is a mere 6.6%. On this basis, prime foreclosures could spike to 9%. If that sounds preposterous, note that prime delinquencies were close to 3% in 2007 and by second quarter 2009 the foreclosure rate hit that same 3% rate. Foreclosures follow delinquencies over time and a sinking cure rate makes that prognosis even more likely.

What happens now depends on jobs and home prices, neither of which looks very promising. Even 5-6% prime foreclosures would be a disaster and that looks increasingly likely.

 

Mish

GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com

 

 

 Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Latest topics on forum :
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
2018's 'Short' of the Year
23 Aprpearsallmarc
I really like the idea of this trade. Is there any way to execute this trade with long dated options (on SLV & GLD) or do you have to buy and s...
State of Failure
11 AprThe Recusant1
My, my...James's article almost sounds as if Trump himself might have gassed the people as a deflection and not Syria at all! Why...why...that's co...
State of Failure
09 AprGypsy
The STOCK MARKET trend has been DOWN. In fact, the word after Friday's Crash was "Standby for Monday." In a Moment of Severe Stress, the so-calle...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
05 Aprsirqitous
Seen realistically, however, this was money well spent for TPTB, even if they never get that loan repaid! As free advertising for the MSM cover st...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
03 Aprprljr
The really really really really unfortunate thing is that there are people and i use that word "people" lightly, are for no other explanation that ...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
28 Marprblmsolved
The really unfortunate thing about this story; For that kind of money he probably could have hired someone with access to a modern performance ...
Drums Along the Potomac
23 MarGypsy2
I see there's a HUGE market for Conspiracy Theories and FAKE NEWS in the U.K. ~ from the Top down. Theresa May runs her Conspiracy Theory up her f...
Drums Along the Potomac
18 MarThemis-1
While I, too, don't give a hoot about the Skripals, the UK cannot tolerate foreign agents running amok and potentially endangering innocent British...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS