We are at an important juncture as a global society: either we immediately
prioritize a new trajectory focused on creating a positive, functional future
or -- by continuing the consumptive, extractive, exploitative status quo
-- we will default into a nasty nightmare.
What will determine which future path we take is our collective narrative.
It's the story we tell ourselves -- who we are, what we value.
The Power Of Narrative
Under the old narrative, the one currently operating and taking us towards
disaster, powerful people and interests simply perpetuate a regime of More
of the same.
And I do mean ‘More.’ The old narrative rests upon an ideology of endless
growth. It wants and requires more of
everything. More cars sold, more houses built, more jobs created, and
more goods and services of every description sold next year than last.
Everything flows from that want for more. The defenders of the old
ideology are therefore defenders of our astonishingly-wide wealth gap, rapid
energy depletion, emptying aquifers, disappearing pollinators, ruined soils,
and dying oceans.
It doesn’t have to be this way.
A subtext of the old narrative is that humans are destroyers: we wreck
natural systems. Put humans somewhere and first the large animals go extinct.
Then the waters become polluted. Next, the soils are stripped.
Less well known, possibly because it shines a bitter light on our common
practices, is that humans can be incredible forces of positive change, using
their big brains to build natural abundance at rates far faster than nature
by itself is able.
Using sustainable agricultural practices, humans can build topsoil at 100x
the rate of nature alone. We can speed up the maturation of forests. Or
cleverly plant the right species of vegetation to complement the specific
ecosystem needs of our unique local areas to reduce (and reverse even!) the
impact and occurrence of desertification.
All it takes to determine which role we play as a species -- the pillager
or the steward -- is the choice we make as a society.
Changing our role is as simple as changing our narrative. And as hard.
So Let’s Do This Right
Imagine for a moment that instead of a trillion dollars being printed and
handed to the big banks, that same trillion dollars was spread across a range
of investments in our collective futures.
This idea crystalized for me during a recent interview with Richard Duncan
wherein he noted that we have have a once-in-a-lifetime (maybe once ever)
opportunity to borrow a lot of money at the national level, even to print up
enormous amounts of money, without creating meaningful inflation.
A very rare combination of factors allow this to occur at this moment in
history, including excess global manufacturing capacity, global labor markets
and increased automation (which prevent wage inflation from taking root), and
very low inflation coupled to the lowest borrowing costs in history.
Put all of that together and the OECD countries (US, Japan and Europe,
mainly) have a very rare opportunity to borrow, and borrow a LOT, on extremely
favorable terms.
In our conversation, he asked, Why wouldn’t we do this, and then spend
that money on our highest-potential opportunities? Not
consumption, mind you, like transfer payments and wars and other
non-value-creating behaviors, but investments.
Bailed-Out Banks, Or Better Batteries?
For example, we desperately need electricity storage technology to
improve. If we’re going to ever transition to renewable, non-fossil energy
sources like wind and solar, then we absolutely have to have improved battery
storage.
So let’s dedicate $100 billion of that trillion to improving battery
technology. Set massive monetary prizes for whomever solves the power density
riddle using common materials. Fund research laboratories lavishly. Use PR to
elevate and revere the scientists and engineers who make promising
breakthroughs, in order to lure our best and brightest minds into this
important field.
Spend another $300 billion installing solar thermal panels on every roof
top where it makes sense. Retrofit old buildings and requires new ones
to install them as part of the process. Whether existing hot water
heaters use electricity (coal, gas) or oil and gas directly, fossil fuels are
being burned to heat water, which is just plain stupid. The sun can heat water
for our needs just fine, for free (after a small investment).
Then spend $500 billion upgrading our electricity grid to get it ready for
the next hundred years. Make it smart and distributed, and therefore less
vulnerable to natural or intentional acts of sabotage. Get it ready to
accept and use the diverse sources that alternative energy will require, so
we can let competitive innovation flourish. Use technology paired with
incentive alignments to drive more efficient use of electricity by consumers.
Cars with improved batteries will both draw from and put back into the local
grids: when the sun shines and the wind blows, electricity will be flowing
into the grid; on calm days and dark nights power will be drawn from all our
collective storage devices.
Take the last $100 billion from our trillion and put it into permaculture
and cutting-edge sustainable farming practices that demonstrably improve our
soils and support diverse life while removing the needs for fossil inputs in
food production. Models like Farmland LP prove that such farming practices
not only work economically, but ecologically. Everybody wins, humans
included. Fund regenerative farming programs, give awards, and let the bright
young people working in these fields know that society supports and admires
their success and mistakes alike.
The Choice
So that's an alternative way to spend $1 trillion, instead of giving it to
the banks as central banks around the world have been doing hand over fist.
For perspective, since the 2008 crisis, the world's major central banks have
injected over $8 trillion into the financial system by expanding their
balance sheets. Given the moribund global economy that's resulted, along with
the massive wealth gap and increased systemic instability, perhaps we'd
indeed have much more to show for their efforts had a mere $1 trillion been
invested in the way just proposed.
The point is, if we're going to use this historic "hall pass" to
borrow massive amounts of money, shouldn't we invest that money towards
creating a future worth inheriting?
(Yes, there are very good arguments to be made we perhaps shouldn't be
feeding the debt glut that's at the root of our global economic problems. But
the borrowing and money printing is indeed happening. So as long as it is,
shouldn't we be doing wiser things with it than simply enriching the top 1%
at the expense of everyone else?)
When the next trillion is borrowed into existence, let's do inspiring and
wonderful things with it. Spend money to buy out fishermen so that collapsing
ocean fish stocks can recover. Invest in water conservation and recovery
projects where needed. Rebuild our crumbling bridges and deliver the
highest speed internet, for free, to every corner of the country.
To do all of this, all we need to do is decide that these are our
priorities instead of the sorts of things we currently spend our money on.
The alternative, sadly, is simply more of the same. That path is leading
us straight into a nested set of predicaments that will all come crashing
down on our collective heads at some point in the future.
So that’s the change in narrative. If we're going to borrow, let's borrow
to invest in ourselves and in our future. Any country that does this
will quickly become a shining example that other countries will want to
follow, and from whom they will buy the next round of cutting-edge
technologies that will actually improve people’s lives and rehabilitate their
hopes. And give us the infrastructure we'll need to navigate the twin
colliding trends of resource depletion and population growth.
Sadly, the people and institutions in power do not cling to the status quo
likely. Do I expect them to support a radical shift in narrative that leads
to very different behavior than we see today. No. No I don't.
In Part II: What Systemic Breakdown Will Look Like we’ll
discuss what will happen if we don’t do things differently by
looking at the probable breakdowns in the economy, energy and the
environment, as well as how you should prepare for these outcomes.
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free
executive summary, enrollment required for full access)
