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In
a 16-slide gallery feature, "Apocalypse How? Dire 2012 Forecasts," Bloomberg highlights the perspectives of those with a penchant for telling
it like it is.
Pessimistic
Prognosticators
Only the
gloomiest of Wall Street's prognosticators got it right in 2008 and 2009.
Since then, their pessimism has been infectious. On almost any investing
topic -- from emerging markets to U.S. stocks, from commodities to sovereign
debt -- there are respected experts predicting the worst.
So far,
apocalypse hasn't arrived. The U.S. economy shows signs of life. Europe is
muddling through its debt concerns. The economies of China and India have
slowed but not stalled.
If these
commentators, who range from short-seller Jim Chanos
to GMO's Jeremy Grantham, prove prescient -- and Bloomberg.com will check in
later this year to see if they are -- the biggest surprise in 2012 would be
some truly good news.
Of course, I
was flattered (and surprised) to find my views featured alongside those of a number of
individuals I admire and respect.
Michael Panzner wrote the book "Financial Armageddon"
in 2007 and an equally gloomy tome in 2009: "When Giants Fall: An
Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era." On his blog, Panzner describes "an economy teetering on the edge
of disaster," and criticizes those betting on recovery. "It appears
somebody put too much Kool-Aid in the optimists' eggnog," he wrote Dec.
28. In a Jan. 11 email, he said: "The fundamental outlook is even worse
now than it was a few weeks ago, given (the lack of positive) developments in
Europe and growing evidence that the economies of major countries around the
world are deteriorating fast."
As a long-time
student of the markets, I'm naturally wary when articles like
this appear in the mainstream media, as they can be a sign that
sentiment has reached a bullish or bearish extreme (and thus is about to
be proved totally wrong). However, given that the stock market is not far from its post-crash-rebound highs,
while CEOs. investors, strategists, economists, and newsletter writers are generally optimistic about
the outlook, I don't think I have too much to worry about.
Michael J. Panzner
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