|
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD
1,655.75, EUR 1,245.86, and GBP 1,041.22 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was
USD 1,677.00, EUR 1,255.62 and GBP 1,052.00 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $31.84/oz,
€23.97/oz and £20.05/oz. Platinum is
trading at $1,630.20/oz, palladium at $639./oz and rhodium at $1,350/oz.
Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)
Gold fell $18.20 or 1.84% in New York yesterday and
closed at $1,663.10/oz. Gold traded sideways in Asia prior to seeing a slight
climb to $1,665/oz in late Asian and early European
trading prior to price falls in Europe .
Gold continues to struggle due to poor short term technicals and a slight decrease in global physical
demand in recent days - particularly from India.
Gold closing below the 200-day and 100-day daily moving
averages yesterday further clouded the technical picture and a weekly close
below the DMAs would likely result in further price weakness.
End of the quarter book squaring and selling and profit
taking are likely contributing to the weakness. Dollar strength and equity
weakness may have also lead to selling on the COMEX as speculators covered
losses in equity markets.
The durable goods and future business investment
numbers were poor and fell short of expectations, raising the prospect that
economic growth in Q1 may be below the Fed’s and the bullish
forecasters estimates.
The poor numbers further clouded the US economic
outlook and raised the prospect of continuing ultra loose
monetary policies and QE which will be bullish for gold.
Markets await more clues from US economic data.
Negative US GDP and US weekly jobless claims may
lead to safe haven gold buying.
European investors will focus on the outcome of the
Italian bond sale as Rome aims to sell up to 8.25 billion euros of debt.
Clients are reluctant to buy the dip fearing further
weakness and March has been poor for physical gold sales to investors and
store of wealth buyers.
However, gold's fundamentals of broad based global
demand remain sound and mean that this is likely another period of correction
and consolidation.
The primary characteristic of all bull markets is that
they climb a "wall of worry." Gold is continuing to climb a
"wall of worry" with much bearish sentiment and frequent assertions
that it is a bubble.
While oil prices came down yesterday partly due to
speculation that the US might tap its strategic reserves, the increasing risk
of a confrontation between Iran and Israel, the US and many western powers
remains real and should support oil and gold prices.
 
Global Commodity Prices and Data – (Bloomberg)
Iran's oil exports have dropped in March as buyers
prepare for sanctions, and shipments are likely to shrink further if Obama
determines by Friday that markets can adjust to less Iranian oil and tightens
sanctions even further.
Sanctions could eventually leave half of Iran's oil
output cut off from international markets, according to analysts and
officials.
Iran is also being excluded from global commerce and
the global economy by being locked out of the international payment system
– SWIFT.
SWIFT, the Brussels based clearing house, announced
last week it will cut services to Iranian banks on foot of European
sanctions, in order to comply with the EU Council. The service denial
includes Iran’s central bank, which processes Iran’s oil
revenues. Some 30 Iranian banks will be blocked from doing international
business.
History suggests that the trade, economic and currency
war with Iran may soon degenerate into an actual war. Increasingly, the
regime in Iran has little to lose in engaging in a more aggressive foreign
policy – including attempting to close the strategically important
Straits of Hormuz.
These tensions should see gold well supported and a
military confrontation would see oil and gold rise rapidly in value on
inflation hedging and safe haven buying.
OTHER NEWS
(Bloomberg) -- Gold May Gain 8.5% on Moving Average,
Hammer: Technical Analysis
Gold may
gain 8.5 percent to $1,802 an ounce after the metal formed a so-called hammer
pattern last week and held above its 55-week moving average, according to
technical analysis by Citigroup Inc.
“The low may already be in place” after the
metal held above the moving average and developed a hammer pattern, formed on
a candlestick chart by a short body at the top of a long lower wick,
resembling a hammer, the bank said. Prices may advance to $1,802, near the
November high, before climbing to near September’s record of $1,921.15,
Citigroup said.
“We continue to believe a platform is being set
for a medium-term rally,” Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at
Citigroup in New York, wrote in a March 27 report with colleagues Shyam Devani and Jim Zhou.
“The price action reminds us of 2006, which saw gold stabilize at the
55-week, turn back and ultimately carry on to make new highs.”
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,660.82 an
ounce by 6:20 a.m. in London today, after climbing for the past 11 years.
Prices are up 6.2 percent in 2012 even after sliding 2.1 percent the past
month as signs that U.S. growth is accelerating pared investors’
expectations the Federal Reserve will buy more debt.
With the exception of in 2008, bullion hasn’t
traded more than 1 percent to 3 percent below its 55-week moving average in
the past decade, meaning prices of $1,585 to $1,615 may be a “buy
zone,” Citigroup said.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study
charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security,
commodity, currency or index.
(Bloomberg) -- The World Gold Council said it has
another draft plan to combat “conflict gold”
The World
Gold Council said it has another draft plan to combat “conflict
gold”
The proposals to help miners produce metal that is free
from fuelling or financing armed conflict were produced after comments from
governments, investors and researchers, the producer-funded council said
today in a statement on its website. Comments are being requested by June 30.
(Bloomberg) -- UBS Positive on Palladium, Platinum,
Iron Ore Over Three Months
UBS AG has
positive outlooks on palladium, platinum and iron ore over the next three
months, according to an e-mailed report. There were “subdued price
outlooks” for gold, zinc, thermal coal, uranium and alumimum,
and “downside risks” for copper and nickel, UBS said.
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets
and gold, follow us on Twitter.
NEWS
Reuters
Gold gives up early gains; tracks equities lower
BusinessWeek
Indian Jewelers Extend Strike
BusinessWeek
Palladium Seen Beating Gold With Record Car Sales
Bloomberg
Goldman Is Bullish on Oil and Gold
Financial Times
Mitsubishi invests in North American platinum
COMMENTARY
FTAdvisor
GoldCore via FT: Uncertain Times Require Certain
Diversifications
MarketWatch
The Next Leg of Gold’s Bull Run
GATA
Gold Price Suppression Caught Red-handed
The Street
Gold Is Manipulated -- But That's Okay
King World News
Greyerz - European Leaders Lying, Trillions Need to Be
Printed
Mark
O’Byrne
Goldcore
|
