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Is the Market Plunge Just a Storm in a Teacup?

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Published : May 19th, 2017
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Source: Clive Maund for The Gold Report   05/18/2017

Technical analyst Clive Maund analyzes Wednesday's drop in U.S. stock markets amid concerns over political turmoil in Washington.

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The Deep State and the liberal elites have never accepted Trump as president, despite him being democratically elected, and have been trying to undermine and discredit him since he came to office, a job that is made easier by them controlling most of the media. They are pushing for impeachment on trumped up (no pun intended) charges, and while the chances of this succeeding look rather slim, if they do there will be a lot of angry people out there and even more polarization that is likely to lead to widespread rioting and social unrest.

It is partly increasing fears of impeachment that triggered the sudden nosedive in U.S. stock markets yesterday, which has soured sentiment and probably marks the start of the traditional "Sell in May and go away" summer correction, when wealthy investors sell out and go off to pursue their more important leisure interests. Let's look at the setup now on the latest 6-month chart for the S&P 500 index.

On the S&P 500 index we can see that the index had been spluttering for several weeks after breaking to marginal new highs with momentum (MACD) very weak and there is certainly plenty of room for a correction with a big gap having opened up between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. So, what we have here is a failed breakout, and it doesn't look likely that the market will succeed in pushing to new highs in coming months, which are seasonally weak anyway, and in fact a correction here would set the market up for renewed gains in the fall. We should remain aware, however, that if the Deep State succeeds in unseating Trump, the chaos that ensues could lead to a market crash. Barring this, how low might it correct? Probably no lower than the rising 200-day moving average.

Over the longer term, and assuming Trump is not removed from office, the outlook remains bright for the market, with money that has been sat on the sidelines since 2009 pouring in and the central banks weighing too and buying stocks in a big way, so that this bull market ends as most of them do, with a parabolic blow-off top, like the Tech bubble of 2000, and then it crashes. This is a scenario that we are going to look at shortly on the site, and our aim is to play it utilizing the strongest Stage 2 growth phase stocks, reversing to short before the crash.

Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

Charts courtesy of Clive Maund.

Originally posted on Clive Maund's members-only website at 8.00 am EDT on 18th May 2017.


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Clive Maund is a specialist of technical analysis. His website, www.clivemaund.com, is dedicated to serious investors and traders in the precious metals and energy sectors. It offers no nonsense, premium analysis to subscribers. It is 100% subscriber supported, and takes no advertising or incentives from the companies it covers. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis. Happy trading.
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