We believe the current capital shift in the
US stock market may be settling into the Technology sector as investors move
away from growth and into value.
Technology has recently recovered very nicely from the late December
2018 lows and is currently setting up a very eerily similar pattern across
multiple charts.
If our analysis is correct, we believe the
Technology sector may be setting up for a downside price breakdown near the
APEX of these Pennant/Flag formations that appear in our charts. Near recent, all-time highs, this downside
breakdown could be rather large in size, possibly as much as -20% to -35% or
more, and could result in a global stock market decline that could shock most
investors/traders.
The economic data that has recently been
announced in the US continues to show moderate strength overall. The jobs numbers are decent. The consumer is still moderately active and
we are getting into the Christmas Rally season.
Yet we are also in the midst of a Presidential Election cycle that
continues to heat up and drive almost daily new headlines. Our opinion is that the US consumer will
become fixated on the political theater while we get closer to the November
2020 elections and may curb Christmas/holiday spending if news/perspective
suddenly darken.
One of the first sectors we believe could
break is the Technology sector – where foreign investors have poured billions
into this sector while chasing price gains and to protect against foreign
currency devaluation. Once investors
determine Technology is no longer “safe”, then a downside price event (true
price exploration) will likely happen and we are concerned the downside risks
could be much greater than 20~25%.
This AMD weekly chart provides one of the
clearest pictures of the tight Pennant/Flag formation setting up in price. After a Double-Top type of formation near
$35, any further price advance was rejected near $36. The current tight price rotation after the
August 2019 peak suggests a very tight Pennant/Flag formation is setting
up. If our analysis is correct, the
APEX/breakout/breakdown event is only a few days away. Our count of the Pennant rotation suggests
the breakdown move (lower) is the most likely outcome.
This AMZN chart highlights a similar pattern
to the AMD chart. Although the current
Pennant/Flag formation is a little more defined, the structure is still the
same. An August 2019 high after a
Double-Top formation, downward price rotation after the August 2019 peak and a
clear APEX setting up RIGHT NOW. The
downside risk in AMZN is clearly a drop to near previous support (near $1310) –
-20% or more.
GOOG provides a very clear example of the
price volatility that is setting up a major Pennant/Flag formation.. Although
the current setup is broader than the previous two examples, the potential for
a breakdown event in GOOG is still strong.
The Double-Top pattern near $1280 provides clear resistance. The recent narrowing price channel sets up a very
clear Pennant/Flag formation. We believe
the downside price move in GOOG will initially target the lower price channel,
then break that channel and continue lower.
Netflix has already broken below the lower
price channel. This is what brought this
entire sector to our attention recently.
If Netflix continues lower, it could draw the entire Technology sector
and US major indexes much lower over the next few days/weeks. The downside price risk in Netflix is easily
-25% to -45% – or more.
Our Custom Technology Index chart shows how
the overall Technology sector is struggling to stay above the lower price
channel. Our concern is that one or more
of the major technology firms may break the lower Pennant channel and attempt
to start a breakdown in the US stock market.
If this is the case, then a panic may setup in the markets where
investors dump technology very quickly.
Concluding Thoughts:
Skilled technical traders are adept at finding ways to profit from nearly any price trends. A quick trade in TECS or an Inverse NASDAQ ETF would allow many skilled traders to attempt to profit from this APEX/breakdown potential. We don’t have confirmation of the breakdown event just yet, but it certainly appears that the Technology sector could come under some severe pressure over the next 30+ days
Also, take a look at all my precious metals trade signals this year (2019) with a total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter of 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you bought and held GDXJ gold miners ETF.
My point here is that no matter how much you love metals or technology stocks (and I LOVE them both), you do not need to always be in a position with them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are life-changing events in a good way if traded correctly.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
NOTICE : Our free research does not
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action regarding this research. It is
provided for educational purposes only.
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