Is The U.S. Economy Really Recovering?

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Published : July 11th, 2018
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

Written by Chris Marcus for the Miles Franklin blog

Lately elected officials love pointing to the booming stock market and citing it as evidence that the economy is recovering and strong. Similar with the employment data, where many cite the recent numbers as a sign of further strength in the markets. But is that really accurate?

Fortunately there’s a brilliant economist named John Williams who’s dedicated his career to exposing the flaws in the data that so many on Wall Street and in the mainstream cite. On his website Shadow Stats he takes the government data and calculates what the numbers would really look like were it not for the constant revisions in the formulas. Formula changes that have the consistent effect of making the numbers look more government friendly.

Williams was recently interviewed on Greg Hunter’s “USA Watchdog”, and my guess is that by the time most in the mainstream become aware of what he’s discovered and shared, the pricing in the financial markets will be significantly different.

One of the topics Hunter asked Williams about was the inflation rate. Which is based on a formula that has been revised numerous times since 1980, with the changes often having the effect of making the inflation number significantly lower (in fact several years ago former President Barack Obama inadvertently confirmed how politicized the numbers have become when he actually suggested tweaking the formula again as a means of deficit reduction!).

Greg Hunter: If it (the inflation rate) was done the way it was done in 1980, it would be close to 10%, the real inflation rate?

John Williams: Yes. It would be.

A far different story from the 2% the Fed always trots out.

When asked what he would do if he were advising President Trump, Williams said Trump would need to bring the the budget under control, and mentioned the danger of the severe long-term deficit problem in the United States. As well as how the unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare (that he calculates at over $100 trillion in net present value) have to be brought under control.

Which makes perfect sense. Except the only problem is that bringing either the publicly stated debt or the unfunded liabilities under control couldn’t be further off the political radar.

So when Williams was asked how he felt gold might react to the inevitable consequences of the current situation, he responded by saying he sees a, “diving dollar and spiking gold and silver”.

Which makes perfect sense when you realize just how flawed the data that most look at has really become. Most of the world is still looking at distorted inflation numbers and over-inflated GDP figures. So they are making their investment decisions based on a different set of underlying assumptions. Which Williams exposes as being heavily flawed.

So it seems like a reasonable guess that by the time the majority of the world realizes what Williams has been saying, he may well end up being proven right on his forecast of the dollar sinking, while precious metals spike higher.

Chris Marcus

To buy or sell gold and silver call Miles Franklin today at (1-800-822-8080).

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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