For the terrorist group known as the Islamic State, Syria and Iraq were a
good place to start their campaign, but in order to survive and prosper it knew
from the outset that it had no choice but to set its sights on the ultimate
prize: the oil fields of Saudi Arabia.
It is in that direction that the battle for control of the world's largest
oil fields is currently heading.
Islamic State -- which has its origins in al-Qaeda - knows fully well that
in order to sustain itself as a viable and lasting religious, political,
economic and military entity in the region, it has to follow the same
objectives established by al-Qaeda when Osama bin Laden broke off his
relations with the Saudi monarchy and vowed to bring down the
House of Saud.
Bin Laden's ire at the Saudi monarchy stemmed from the fact that Saudi
King Fahd bin Abdulaziz Al Saud invited the American military to use Saudi
Arabia as a staging area to build up forces to take on the then Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein after Iraqi troops occupied Kuwait in August of 1990. Bin
Laden objected to the presence of "infidels" in the land of the two
holy mosques, and asked the king to allow his outfit to tackle Saddam
Hussein's troops.
Similarly, IS knows that it will only feel secure once Saudi Arabia is
part of the Caliphate, and its oil fields are under IS control -- which is
why the group has two logical next steps.
First, to capture and secure the most important country in the Muslim
world: Saudi Arabia.
If the battle for Syria and Iraq attracted tens of hundreds, (some say
tens of thousands) of young Muslims, the battle for control of Islam's two
holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, are very likely to attract many more
fighters into the ranks of the Islamic State.
And second, to take on the United States -- the one remaining superpower
that could stop its march on the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, and ultimately
the rest of the Gulf.
After much hesitation, it now appears that the Obama administration has
come around to realizing the true danger posed by IS. Washington, along with
some of its NATO allies, is now formulating a plan to defeat IS.
However, it may be wise to point out that Washington's track record in
dealing with
Middle East problems has not been something to crow about. As a point of
reference, one need only mention Iraq and Afghanistan -- both prime examples
of how not to do things.
Even if the U.S. can defeat IS militarily, any victory would only be
temporary since eventually, U.S. troops will pull out and the remnants of IS
would emerge from their respective hiding places, as they did after Saddam
Hussein's capture and death. Indeed, a U.S. intervention -- through its
massive air campaign -- will foment even greater animosity toward the West in
general, and the United States, in particular. It's all deja vu.
The one power that can effectively move against IS in a manner that would
appear legitimate to other Muslims is Saudi Arabia, as Nawaf Obaid, a fellow at
Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and
Saud al-Sarhan, research director at the King Faisal Center for Research and
Islamic Studies pointed out in a joint opinion piece published Sept. 9 in the
New
York Times.
The authors dispute the widely believed notion that Saudi Arabia created
IS and is funding it. "Saudi Arabia is not the source of ISIS -- it's
the group's primary target," they write.
As Obaid and al-Sarhan put it, "The Saudi leadership has a unique
form of religious credibility and legitimacy, which will make it far more
effective than other governments at delegitimizing ISIS's monstrous terrorist
ideology."
What makes IS powerful today is the fact that they laid out their military
strategy based on where oil fields are located. The fact that they went after
northeast Syria and northern Iraq is not coincidental by any means. Islamic
State may be ruthless and brutal, but it is first and foremost a terrorist
organization with an astute business plan.
The capture of oil wells in Syria and Iraq has made the group financially
self-sufficient. Now it's all or nothing.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/I...-Oil-Wells.html
By Claude Salhani of target="_blank" Oilprice.com
