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In
the 1970′s he predicted
gold’s meteoric rise and its 1980 top to the day. He published a full page advertisement in USA Today
warning of the impending collapse of stock markets in the 1987 Savings
& Loan crash – and nailed
that one to the day. He saw the collapse of the Japanese
real estate market and warned his clients that a depression was coming. In the late 1990′s he contacted Russian officials to advise them of an impending meltdown of their currency due to forces beyond their control – and he was right again.
He
lives in New York today,
but for the better part of the last decade he was
held in federal prison. His charge? Officially, nothing. Unofficially, he was held
in contempt of court for nearly
ten years for refusing to hand over his cyclical economic models to Goldman Sachs and the US Government.
According to the powers that be, Armstrong was manipulating the world economy, and because he refused to share his prescient models, they locked him away
without charge or trial – indefinitely.
He
may sound like a fictional character out of a Hollywood
blockbuster, except Martin
Armstrong is the real deal, and he’s been warning of a paradigm
shift unlike any we have witnessed in history.
With the US government
expediently acting to restrict
personal liberties, nearly incalculable amounts of
national debt, Europe on the brink
of a break up, and confusion in global asset markets, Armstrong’s Private/Public cyclical models are indicating that the world better get ready for a rough ride
– and soon.
Via
Armstrong Economics:
I
have warned that the
United States would be
last to fall because it is the core
economy being both the largest as well as the reserve currency. I have warned that this will
not collapse into dust
all at the same time. Each link will
break one at a time cascading
like dominos. This is not
my OPINION – it
is history.
…
Greece will be forced to leave for staying under the terms of Germany will bring civil war. Social unrest is erupting and what the US and German authorities FAIL to understand
is we are dealing with a BELL CURVE
and not a linear
progression. There has to be balance between austerity and
stimulation. It is like heat and cold. Both extremes will kill you. We
survive in the middle
…
It
is true that rising interest
rates can attract
capital. However, when
capital FLEES, interest rates CONTINUE
to rise due to the shortage
of capital. NOTHING is ever
a straight line. BIG Capital is fleeing Europe and that goes to government debt because it is liquid
and can absorb vast amounts.
…
We have to understand
what I call this Public
v Private battle in
confidence. This can also
be called the flight-to-quality that appears during a crisis. The primary trend that is common
in all economic declines is what is
described as the flight-to-quality. This is at the core of capital flow for
it represents the first criteria in how capital moves betweenPublic
and Private Assets.
The
flight-to-quality is
traditionally observed by
just about everyone and it is unleashed
whenever confidence in the private
assets collapses. Investors
panic, sell private assets, and rush to government
bonds driving interest
rates down sharply. During
the 2007-2009 crises, interest rates in the USA virtually went to zero. In other words, people were willing to accept no interest just to park their cash in a safe place they saw as government assets when they
feared even banks would not survive.
…
The
shift in this flight-to-quality
attitude is always
at the core of capital movement. During a generational Private Wave, investment and speculation become common place. During a Public
Wave, private assets are looked upon as risky and the safer bet is
to invest and trust government.
…
So
understanding what we are facing right now is critical
to our survival. We must understand that forecasting a single market in isolation is asking for disaster. To comprehend the true global
implication of how capital moves, we must embrace a global correlation approach. We are headed for BIG volatility come September/October. Reality should start to make its way
known going into year-end. So hold on tight. This will be a
rough ride.
Source:
Manipulating the World Economy Or Just Understanding
How It Really Functions?
In 2012 Predictions of a Mad Tin Foilist
we opined that if a collapse of the stock market
was to take place in 2012, that it would originate
in Europe, with investors
fleeing risky assets there to the relative
“safety” of none other
than the US Dollar – much
like they did in 2008. This flight-to-quality will be the driving force behind crashing stocks and commodities (perhaps even gold), as well as potentially devastating losses in the debt markets of Europe and Japan.
The
subsequent result of this fleeing of capital from perceived and actual risk will
have the effect of strengthening
the US dollar, which means
a potentially powerful
rebound in US Treasuries
as investors rush to preserve
their wealth in what they believe
to be the safest asset available. Yes, it sounds
counter-intuitive to rush to safety
in the US dollar given the state of affairs in America, but despite the constant criticism from international financial
experts we remain the largest economy in the world
and just so happen to control the printing presses of the world’s reserve currency.
According to Armstrong, we’re
not far off from such an event, and we may very well
see it take place this Fall, as uncertainty and panic
grips international markets and forces the hand of governments, big banks, and individual investors.
Given his
expertise in history, economics,
mathematics and cyclical theory, if there is one person who may have a handle on what information to gather, how to analyze it, and what it means, it’s
Martin Armstrong. He’s proven
it time and again, and it looks as if his alarms are blaring.
As
noted above, while panic and capital flight may
significantly and negatively
impact some asset classes
in the very near future, we don’t have to worry about a total economic doomsday for America just yet. First, all of the
money will flow here for safety. But this flight-to-quality will be short-lived, as the ever expanding national debt and government run amok will ultimately lead to a loss of
confidence in the US dollar itself.
The
scale of this event – this loss in confidence of the reserve
currency of the richest
nation that has ever existed on Earth – will be unprecedented
in human history.
Also Watch: The Oracle – Martin
Armstrong (Trailer):
Related:
It’s Just Time – by
Martin Armstrong
The Coming Paradigm
Shift Will “Result in Riots,
Starvation and Bloodshed”
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