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The Black
Swan Theory is used by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the existence and
occurrence of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond
the realm of normal expectations. One example often put forth by Taleb is the
life and times of the Thanksgiving Turkey.
The turkey
spends the majority of its life enjoying daily feedings from a caring farmer.
Weeks go by, and it’s the same thing day-in-day-out for the Turkey.
Free food. Open range grazing. Good times all around.
The thinking
turkey may even surmise that the farmer has a vested interest in keeping the
turkey alive. For the turkey, it is a symbiotic relationship. “The
farmer feeds me and keeps me happy, and I keep the farmer happy,” says
the turkey. “The farmer needs me, otherwise, why would he be taking
care of me?”
This goes on
for a 1,000 days.
Then, two days
before Thanksgiving on Day 1,001, the farmer shows up again.
But this time
he doesn’t come bearing food, but rather, he’s wielding an ax.
This is a
black swan event — for the turkey.
By definition,
it is a high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event for the turkey, who not
only never saw it coming, but never even contemplated the possibility that it
could occur.
For the
farmer, on the other hand, this was not a black swan event. The farmer knew
all along why he was feeding the turkey, and what the end result would be.
The very
nature of black swan events make them almost impossible to predict. The point
of this parable is to put forth the idea that sometimes we are the
Thanksgiving turkey and understanding this may make it easier to begin to, at
the very least, contemplate the possibility of far-from-equilibrium events.
This year,
when you enjoy that drumstick or Turkey breast, give thanks to the latest
victim of the black swan for being non-contemplative, otherwise, he may have
bugged-out long ago and you’d be eating a chicken instead.
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