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Economy Faces
Risk of Hard Landing: Shi Xiaomin, Govt Economist" (Economic
Times)
BEIJING: A
property sector downturn and slumping global demand may knock China's economy
into a hard landing in 2012, a senior government economist told Reuters,
putting more pressure on Beijing to speed up economic reforms and to open up
the market.
The economy is
not just slowing but is also haunted by over-investment that could constrain
Beijing's options, said Shi Xiaomin, vice president
of China Society of Economic Reform (CSER), a Beijing-based think-tank.
No real
turnaround in a key sector of the economy? Check.
"'Welcome
To The Housing Non-Recovery' In Three Simple Charts"
(Zero Hedge)
Below is some
more hard data where you won't find the much anticipated, 'any minute now',
housing recovery. While the first chart shows the
annualized new home sales sold data, which came in at meaningless 321K in
January on expectations of 315K, and a meaningless drop from an upward
revised 324K, all this shows is that 3 years after the "recovery",
there is zero improvement in housing. In non-SAARed
terms, there were just 22K homes sold in January. Naturally, this is to be
expected because as long as the government continues to prevent true price
discovery, there will be no real housing market. Which is just what the
second chart shows: Completed houses for sale at the end of period dropped to
57K - this is the lowest point in the 40 years of this data series. Said
otherwise nobody has any hopes that there will be a pick
up in housing demand. And why should they - after all as the third and
final chart shows, shadow inventory is at a record, and about to be unleashed
on the market at bargain basement prices courtesy of the Robo-settlement,
which in turn will drag down prevailing prices far, far lower everywhere.
Welcome to the latest housing non-recovery.
New Homes for
sale, courtesy of John Lohman:
Record low
completed houses for sale at the end of the period:
And record high
shadow inventory:
Growing
potential for upheaval in the Middle East? Check.
"US
Planning to Boost Sea and Land Defences in Gulf as
Iran War Fears Grow" (Telegraph)
The Pentagon
has begun to take tangible steps to prepare for a possible conflict with Iran
by making formal plans to boost US sea and land defences
in the Persian Gulf, it has been claimed.
Military
planners have asked for emergency funding from Congress to address a
perceived shortfall in defence capabilities that
could undermine the ability of US forces to respond to an Iranian closure of
the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal quoted American officials as
saying.
Gen James Mattis, the head of the US Central Command, has privately
informed Congress of his intentions to place mine detection and clearing
equipment in and around the Strait and to boost surveillance capabilities in
the Gulf.
There are also
plans to modify weapons systems on ships that are at present vulnerable to
Iranian fast-attack boats, many of which carry anti-ship missiles.
Reflecting
Pentagon fears that the US could be sucked into a war by the end of the year,
the Central Command told Congress that it wanted the new systems in place by
the autumn
Consumers
turning back to old bad habits? Check.
"US
Credit-Card Debt Nearing Toxic Levels" (New
York Post)
More American
households are falling back into the debt hole — this time without the
safety net of home values to help bail them out.
Last year,
total US consumer debt reached the highest point in a decade, according to a
credit-card industry observer.
“Now more
than ever, families need to work at saving and paying off any outstanding
debts,” says Howard Dvorkin, a CPA and founder
of ConsolidatedCredit.org, a credit counseling service.
He says that,
after a few months of reducing credit-card debt levels, Americans are
starting to return to their reliance on debt.
“People
made some progress in reducing card debt earlier in the year, but in the last
few months, as the stock market started to rise, they started to return to
their old ways of charging things,” Dvorkin
says.
In December,
the total consumer debt, which is the combination of non-revolving and
revolving debt, rose by some 9.3 percent to $2.498 trillion, according to the
latest Federal Reserve Board numbers.
Both revolving
debt and non-revolving debt increased. Revolving debt, which is credit-card
debt, went up by 4.1 percent. Non-revolving debt, which includes loans for
cars and education, rose 11.8 percent, the central bank’s report said.
The trend
— month to month, quarter to quarter and year to year — is rising
steeply
Yeah, they're
right. Things are lookin' reeeaaaalllllllll
good.
Michael J. Panzner
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