Financial Markets Summary
For The Week of November 3-7 2008
The first week of November
will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will
feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in
October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event
will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls
that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release
of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total
vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September. The
following day will see the factory orders report for September published.
Wednesday will see the ISM non-manufacturing survey released and Thursday
will see the weekly jobless claims data and the Q3;08 non-farm productivity
estimate announced. The week will conclude the release of pending home sales,
consumer credit and wholesale inventories for September.
Fed Talk
Dallas Fed President Fisher
will address the economic outlook on Tuesday, FOMC Governor Warsh will speak
topic TBA on Thursday and the week will conclude with a glimpse into the
economic outlook by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart on Friday.
Domestic Vehicle Sales
(October) Monday: Throughout Day
The initial estimate of Q3'08
GDP data implied that real personal disposable income contracted at a rate of
-8.7%. This should provide another heavy dose of bad news for the auto
industry, which as seen demand for its products severely diminished. Our
forecast implies that domestic vehicle sales will increase by 9.1mln on an
annual basis and that total vehicle sales will see a total of 12.0mln sold
over that same time frame, with significant risk to the downside.
ISM Manufacturing (October)
Monday 10:00 AM
Before credit markets seized
up in October activity in the manufacturing sector was already well on its
way towards signaling a national recession. The combination of the problems
in the credit markets, the strike at Boeing and declining demand form the
external sector should be sufficient to knock the headline estimate of
national manufacturing activity to 41.5
Factory Orders (September)
Tuesday 10:00 AM
The noticeable decline in
industrial production on the back of falling demand from abroad and the
strike at Boeing should be the primary catalyst behind what we think will be
a -1.5% decline in factory orders for the month. Of interest, will be the
forward looking indicator of growth inside the non-defense ex-aircraft
category, which should provide a clear indication of an economy decelerating
before the intensification of the credit crisis.
ISM Non-Manufacturing
(October) Wednesday 10:00 AM
The service sector on the back
of weak income and bleak job prospects among consumers, grew at an anemic
rate of 0.6% according to the advance estimate of Q3'08 GDP. We expect that
the service sector will continue to show signs of stress in October, when
according to the latest consumer sentiment survey individuals have clear
become quit bearish on the economy and their own individual economic
situations. We expect the headline to fall to 47.9
Jobless Claims (Week Ending
October 25) Thursday 08:30 AM
The week ending October 25
should start to pick up some of the recent reductions in the workforce and
drive the headline higher back towards 485k. The return to work of workers in
South Texas in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike will offset the ongoing culling
of the workforce but that impact will continue to diminish and set the stage
for a move above 500k on a continuing basis over the next few months.
Non-Farm Payrolls (October)
Friday 08:30 AM
The October payrolls data
should capture the pick-up of layoffs throughout the economy that have begun
to build and will be a feature of the economic landscape over the next two
years. The layoffs in the auto sector should be the primary catalyst for an
increase in job destruction in the manufacturing sector, along with job
losses in trade, retail, and financial and business services. The destruction
of employment opportunities in the household estimate should send the
unemployment rate up to 6.3% and the establishment estimate should show a
loss of -225K.
Pending Home Sales
(September) Friday 10:00 AM
Purchases of new and existing
homes picked up during the traditional summer buying season on the back of
favorable developments in the interest rate environment and further declines
in the median price of homes. However, given the upcoming pending home sales
report should see significant retrenchment due to funding problems due to the
begging of problems in the credit markets and the visible increase in
uncertainty over employment prospects for workers.
