Chart usGOLD   Chart usSILVER  
 
Food for thought
On ne peut pas régner sur des hommes qui pensent
Ayn Rand  
Search for :
LATEST NEWS  :
MINING STOCKS  :
Subscribe
Write Us
Add to Google
Search on Ebay :
PRECIOUS METALS (US $)
Gold 1287.585.06
Silver 19.630.19
Platinum 1419.106.35
Palladium 891.752.00
WORLD MARKETS
DOWJONES 1712211
NASDAQ 4570-1
NIKKEI 15460-75
ASX 5621-28
CAC 40 43952
DAX 9570-18
HUI 2400
XAU 1000
CURRENCIES (€)
AUS $ 1.4120
CAN $ 1.4342
US $ 1.3215
GBP (£) 0.7962
Sw Fr 1.2069
YEN 137.1100
CURRENCIES ($)
AUS $ 1.0688
CAN $ 1.0853
Euro 0.7567
GBP (£) 0.6026
Sw Fr 0.9132
YEN 103.7760
RATIOS & INDEXES
Gold / Silver65.59
Gold / Oil13.75
Dowjones / Gold13.30
COMMODITIES
Copper 3.180.00
WTI Oil 93.63-0.25
Nat. Gas 4.000.00
Market Indices
Metal Prices
RSS
Precious Metals
Graph Generator
Statistics by Country
Statistics by Metals
Advertise on 24hGold
Projects on Google Earth
Natural Gas is the Trigger
Published : December 16th, 2012
619 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 ) Print article
 
    Comments    
Tweet

 

 

 

 

Last summer I told traders to watch the oil cycle as the CRB was working its way down into a final three year cycle low. At the time I was confident that the entire commodity complex was just waiting for the oil cycle to bottom. Once it did, the rest of the commodity complex launched out of that bottom like a rocket.

 


 

Remember at the time virtually every analyst was predicting the end of the commodity bull market. I knew that was baloney. All that was happening was a completely normal decline into a major three year cycle low.

I also correctly predicted that the bottom in the CRB would mark the three year cycle top in the dollar.

 


 

As expected the dollar made a halfhearted attempt to regain the 200 day moving average before rolling over in anticipation of QE4. At this point all we are waiting for is a move below the last daily cycle low at 79.56 to confirm the intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner (left translated cycles are an indication of a cycle that is in decline and making lower lows and lower highs).

Once 79.56 is breached the dollar will be on its way down into its yearly cycle low sometime in mid to late February. My best guess is an intermediate bottom somewhere around 76-77 before another mild bounce like we witnessed out of the August low and then a continued collapse of the worlds reserve currency.

Since September when the dollar began it's pathetic countertrend rally, the CRB has been moving down into its first corrective phase. At this point I think the entire commodity complex is just waiting for the leader to turn. And by leader I mean natural gas. As you can see in the chart below Nat gas led the entire commodity complex out of that major three year cycle low.

 


 

I think Nat gas began a new cyclical bull market in April. This was the point at which currency debasement overwhelmed the supply/demand fundamentals of a saturated Nat gas market. I don't believe for a minute that this bull market is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals. I think this market is being driven by the same thing that the entire commodity complex is responding to, and has been responding to since last summer, and that is massive global currency devaluation.

As you can see in the chart above the natural gas cycle is now deep in the timing band for a turn. I suspect when Nat gas forms a swing we will see oil, gold, silver, and the entire commodity complex begin another leg up in what I expect to be a severe inflationary spiral culminating in at least a mini currency crisis in mid-2014.

As predicted the stock market rallied violently out of its intermediate bottom logging a 7% gain on the initial thrust. We can now expect stocks to take a breather as a minor profit-taking event unfolds and the stock market moves down into its half cycle low.

My best guess is we will see a bottom somewhere between 1400-1410 followed by a move up to test the all-time highs, probably by the end of the year (especially if we get a resolution to the fiscal Cliff in the next week or two). But if Congress manages to drag this into the new year, then I think we can expect fiscal cliff resolution and at least a marginal break of the September highs before the state of the union address on January 29.

 


 

So for commodity traders I think we are just waiting on the natural gas market to bottom before the next leg up begins.

 

 

 

Tweet
Rate :Average note :0 (0 vote)View Top rated
Previous article by
Toby Connor
All articles by
Toby Connor
Next article by
Toby Connor
Receive by mail the latest articles by this author  
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
TOP ARTICLES
Editor's picks
RSS feed24hGold Mobile
Gold Data CenterGold & Silver Converter
Gold coins on eBaySilver coins on eBay
Technical AnalysisFundamental Analysis

Toby Connor

Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog with a special emphasis on the gold secular bull market. Toby's premium service includes daily reports and an extensive weekend report.
Toby Connor ArchiveWebsite
Most recent articles by Toby Connor
8/24/2014
8/10/2014
7/30/2014
5/16/2014
5/12/2014
All Articles
Comment this article
You must be logged in to comment an article8000 characters max.
 
Sign in
User : Password : Login
Sign In Forgot password?
 
Receive 24hGold's Daily Market Briefing in your inbox. Go here to subscribe or unsubscribe.
Disclaimer