New online and telephone polls by the Guardian show Brexit is in the lead for the first time ever.
Are those polls flawed or did Prime Minister David Cameron’s over-the-top fearmongering have the opposite effect as intended?
UK Voters Lean Towards Brexit
Please consider UK Voters Leaning Towards Brexit, Guardian Poll Reveals.
Public opinion has shifted towards the UK leaving the EU, two Guardian/ICM polls suggest as the referendum campaign picks up pace – with voters split 52% -48% in favour of Brexit, whether surveyed online or by phone.
Previous polls have tended to show voters surveyed online to be more in favour of Britain leaving the EU. But in the latest ICM research, carried out for the Guardian, both methodologies yielded the same result – a majority in favour of leaving.
In the phone poll of more than 1,000 adults, 45% said they favoured leaving the EU, and 42% remaining, with 13% saying they did not know. Once the “don’t knows” were excluded, that left 52% in favour of Brexit, against 48% for remain.
Using online polling, 47% said they would like to leave, and 44% remain, with 9% saying they were undecided. Excluding the latter, the result was the same as the phone method – 52-48 in favour of leaving.
Last time ICM carried out a poll for the Guardian, in mid-May, remain had a 10 percentage point lead among those polled by phone, on 55% to 45%. The online method produced the same result as the latest one: 52% for leave compared to 48% for remain.
Leave in Lead
Possible Outlier
It’s possible the poll is an outlier. If so, other polls sure to come will swing the other way. As of yesterday Number Cruncher Politics reported things this way.
Bloomberg’s Brexit Watch reported the same numbers for today, with far less detail about the prediction.
Bloomberg says “last updated May 31”.
Bloomberg’s comments were updated today but the above graphics do not reflect the latest polls.
Fearmongering Backfired?
The stench of fearmongering by the “remain” camp was is strong we can smell it across the Atlantic, here in the US.
Economists Unanimous
I am pleased to report that in the FT’s Annual Poll of Economists of more than 100 leading thinkers, not one thought a vote for Brexit would enhance UK growth in 2016.
100% of economists have never correctly agreed on anything of substance. Occasionally they agree the sun will rise tomorrow, but that’s about it.
The last time we saw this much agreement was in 2009 and the consensus was the US dollar needed to sink more.
Reflections on Cost
On May 9, David Cameron gave a Speech on Brexit in which he made the ridiculous claim “If we leave, the only certainty we will have is uncertainty. The Treasury has calculated that the cost to every household in Britain would be as high as £4,300 by 2030 if we leave. £4,300.”
Now that’s a hoot. The treasury cannot calculate GDP, recessions, or deficits, but it is certain of the cost of Brexit to every household through 2030.
Uncertainty Nonsense
If the “remain” forces win, the UK faces the guaranteed certainty of more rules, more regulations, imposed financial transaction taxes, higher tariffs, and more forced more immigration, on top of unforeseen idiocy.
The common sense vote is to keep the uncertainty of trade negotiations instead of the guaranteed certainty of known EU stupidity, plus the guaranteed certainty of unpredictable EU stupidity.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
