NFP report due on Good Friday means low liquidity for gold's most volitile report by Bill Downey


	INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ April 1 2015 Gold Overview Odds favor that gold trades in the 1205-1211 region for the highs this week and the 1172-1182 area on the lows. 2nd Tier upside would be 1220-1225 and downside 1159-1166. The only time we see those numbers as a potential would be on Friday. That is when the Unemployment report (NFP) is published for the month. Usually that is when the biggest spikes in gold occur on either side and usually there is a trend that follows after that report. With the Market closed for Good Friday and then Easter Sunday, volume will drift sharply lower on Thursday and be non-existent by Friday. Thus the control boyz will be ready to implement any clear the stop programs they want and they will not be shy about it if they so desire. For now resistance is 1204-1206 and if exceeded, 1211-1216. Odds favor 1206 should be firm enough resistance. Support is now 1188-1192 for Wednesday. In summary, things will wind down on Thursday and then Friday will have very limited trading with no liquidity virtually to speak of. Then the NFP report will come out. If it all plays out the potential looks like the chart below where we have a high today and then one more probe lower into 1163-1172 with a cycle BLUE low next week. Keep in mind it is possible for another test of 1220 on Friday if the control boyz use the NFP report to shake the market. If we get a pop to 1220-1225 into April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours) then we’ll favor lower prices into mid-April. If price follows the chart below, we favor a low next week and then higher prices into April 18th. Cycles Gold remains a bit elusive as to whether the next cycle turn (BLUE) due on April 4th is going to be a high or a low. IF gold is due to rally from April to Mid-May a BLUE CYCLE LOW would be much more favorable for such a development . The other bottom line is simple. Gold needs to get back into the uptrend channel and close above 1222-1225 on a Friday closing basis. IF WE WERE TO GET A BLUE CYCLE LOW, the ideal high would have been on the 26th of March with a pullback to April 4th. The 1220 print high last week was 1220. Now lets see if gold is going to dump and clear the stops during the NFP report on Monday. A blue cycle low will favor higher to April 18th but a Blue cycle high next week that doesn’t get above 1225, will favor lower to April 18th. Silver We had the 1625 or the 1650 area as our preferred low for the week and so far that has played out with a 1648 low. We have 1687-1697 or 1710-1725 as the odds favored high for this week. The wild card will be Friday with most markets closed and the NFP report. Low liquidity will allow the control boyz to play if they desire. Support now 1650-1666 and then 1609-1625. Resistance is now 1687-1797 and 1710-1725 on the very short term.

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