In the same category

Oh that “Elusive” Inflation!

IMG Auteur
Published : August 13th, 2017
458 words - Reading time : 1 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
Our Newsletter...
Category : Editorials

New York Fed President, William Dudley, says 2% inflation target will remain elusive even if price pressures pick up.

Elusive means “6-10 months”.

Inflation is not likely to reach the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target this year even if monthly data begins to pick up as expected, said William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, on Thursday.

“I do think inflation to start to move higher in the medium term, but probably not get all the way back to sort of 2% on a year-on-year basis,” Dudley said in remarks to reporters at his bank’s headquarters near Wall Street.

Low inflation readings since February will continue to weigh on the index until next year, he said.

“We’re not going to get to a year-over-year number of 2% until some of these very low readings drop out of the statistics six to ten months from now,” he said.

Dudley predicted the tight labor market combined with the weaker dollar should begin to foster upward inflation pressure soon.

Dudley Right on Cue

Dudley was right on cue today given that Producer Prices Unexpectedly Declined.

Transitory Factors to Continue

The Fed, at least Dudley, now believes transitory factors will continue for the rest of 2017 or so.

“Idiosyncratic and Transitory Factors”

On August 2, I noted “Idiosyncratic and Transitory Factors” Holding Down Inflation.

At that time, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed commented: “My suspicion is it’s the idiosyncratic factors, it’s transitory and that the factors pushing down inflation are going to dissipate over time.”

Transitory for 9 Years!

Inquiring minds may be wondering how long these transitory factors have been going on.

Here is a chart of the Fed’s preferred inflation index, PCE excluding food and energy, since 1992.

The Fed hit its inflation target precisely one time in the last 9 years.

One Time Factors

The new definition of transitory is on the order of 9 years. And in regards to “one-time” factors, it seems Mester and Dudley need to study the above chart carefully.

Inflation Puzzle

Note that the Fed cannot hit its inflation target despite a falling US dollar.

In the real world, the Fed does not see inflation precisely because it is totally clueless about how to measure it.

Yes Virginia, there is inflation. Central banks don’t see it because they are clueless about how to measure it.

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 3, 2017

Solving the Inflation Puzzle

Those hoping to solve the inflation puzzle can do so here: Central Banks Puzzled as Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009: Solving the Puzzle.

As protection against Fed policies, it’s wise to own some gold. In case you missed it, please consider How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Source :
Data and Statistics for these countries : Georgia | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Georgia | All
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
East Continues Stacking Gold While The West Stacks Paper Illusions
24 Marprljr
If a countries cartel owned private Central Bank acquires the Gold with cartels bank money for the country it supposedly represents who actually ow...
Russia Did It!
23 Marprljr2
I have not trusted whatever the US government has reported,said,demanded since 911. The government ignored the laws of physics in explaining pretty...
Russia Did It!
23 Markevthorne3
One of the most sensible, level-headed articles I've read on this subject for a long time.
Drums Along the Potomac
23 MarGypsy
I see there's a HUGE market for Conspiracy Theories and FAKE NEWS in the U.K. ~ from the Top down. Theresa May runs her Conspiracy Theory up her f...
Stephen Hawking – Doomsday Prophet’s Top Five Predictions
19 MarThemis1
Stephen Hawking may have been brilliant in his own sphere of science. This does not necessarily equip him to make accurate pronouncements about ot...
Stephen Hawking – Doomsday Prophet’s Top Five Predictions
17 MarWatchdoctor3
In my opinion, yet another NASA actor promoting ''leaving the earth'' as a viable alternative to living in peace with our neighbours. Not even sure...
Drums Along the Potomac
18 MarThemis1
While I, too, don't give a hoot about the Skripals, the UK cannot tolerate foreign agents running amok and potentially endangering innocent British...
School Daze
15 MarJ.
@bfsiedel, While I agree with much of what you posted, regarding whether or not school is broken depends upon one's expectations of public school....
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow