Chart usGOLD   Chart usSILVER  
 
Food for thought
Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today, because by that time there will be a tax on it
Herbert V Prochnow Jr  
Search for :
LATEST NEWS  :
MINING STOCKS  :
Subscribe
Write Us
Add to Google
Search on Ebay :
PRECIOUS METALS (US $)
Gold 1294.08-0.58
Silver 19.630.01
Platinum 1404.500.00
Palladium 794.900.90
WORLD MARKETS
DOWJONES 16409-16
NASDAQ 40969
NIKKEI 1451699
ASX 544532
CAC 40 443226
DAX 941092
HUI 220-2
XAU 90-1
CURRENCIES (€)
AUS $ 1.4802
CAN $ 1.5214
US $ 1.3811
GBP (£) 0.8224
Sw Fr 1.2201
YEN 141.4700
CURRENCIES ($)
AUS $ 1.0722
CAN $ 1.1021
Euro 0.7241
GBP (£) 0.5956
Sw Fr 0.8833
YEN 102.4300
RATIOS & INDEXES
Gold / Silver65.92
Gold / Oil12.41
Dowjones / Gold12.68
COMMODITIES
Copper 3.050.02
WTI Oil 104.300.83
Nat. Gas 4.740.21
Market Indices
Metal Prices
RSS
Precious Metals
Graph Generator
Statistics by Country
Statistics by Metals
Advertise on 24hGold
Projects on Google Earth
Osborne cornered
Published : February 26th, 2013
510 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 2 votes, 5/5 ) Print article
 
    Comments    
Tweet

24hGold - Osborne corneredOn 20 March George Osborne, the UK’s Chancellor, will present his budget. So far he has made a valiant attempt to cap public sector spending, particularly when compared with other finance ministers who were slow to adopt austerity. He has reduced public sector spending from what it would otherwise be, but has not managed to cut the total figure. His strategy now for controlling the budget deficit increasingly depends on higher tax revenues from a combination of forecast economic growth and more aggressive tax collection.

He may be unaware that this is too optimistic. He is advised by a Treasury staffed by economists who believe that through a process of economic modelling and continual refinement of method their control over the desired outcome will be improved. Errors of the past are therefore less likely to be repeated in the future. This approach is the key to understanding the forecasting method upon which Osborne’s budget assumptions are based, and it is completely wrong.

Keynesians and monetarists share a belief that mathematical models are a valuable forecasting tool. For this to be true individual consumer and capital transactions in the future as well as the prices at which they occur have to be calculable: this is obviously not the case. The economic effect of future technological and other relevant developments has to be factored in; but how can this be known? Future demand for British goods from overseas buyers has to be assessed, over which no one has any control. Future currency rates against sterling have to be predicted – a sore point at the moment with sterling dropping like a stone.

The fact that different economic models come to similar conclusions is a reflection of the commonality of their assumptions and construction, not independent confirmation of future economic trends. Instead we must use reason.

By taking economic resources away from the private sector through taxation and monetary debasement you reduce the potential for economic progress. By continuing to support and promote favoured public sector activities (the primary function of every government department) you ensure that resources are tied up in production the market would not itself choose to support. By regulating freedom out of consumer choice, you suffocate basic free-market efficiencies.

Today’s suppressive economic policies ensure that the economic future will disappoint. Consequently, future tax revenue is overestimated, as well as any reduction of public sector costs associated with economic recovery. If some of the smarter minds in the Treasury suspect this, their instinct will be to increase taxes further to protect government finances.

Meanwhile, storm clouds are gathering, with sterling under pressure. Perhaps it has more to do with the failure of monetary policy to rescue the economy, and the likelihood that the Bank of England will choose yet more easing, than any pre-budget nerves. One wonders how many of those econometric models incorporated a 7% slide against both the US dollar and the euro since the New Year. Either way, a sterling crisis is hardly a propitious background for a budget, painting George Osborne into a very difficult corner.

Thanks to Alasdair Macleod from www.goldmoney.com
Tweet
Rate :Average note :5 (2 votes)View Top rated
Previous article by
Alasdair Macleod
All articles by
Alasdair Macleod
Next article by
Alasdair Macleod
Receive by mail the latest articles by this author  
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
TOP ARTICLES
Editor's picks
RSS feed24hGold Mobile
Gold Data CenterGold & Silver Converter
Gold coins on eBaySilver coins on eBay
Technical AnalysisFundamental Analysis

Alasdair Macleod

FinanceAndEconomics.org is the website of Alasdair Macleod, who has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. Alasdair is available for seminars, speeches and interviews. Please check on Services to get further detalils.
Alasdair Macleod ArchiveWebsiteSubscribe to his services
Most recent articles by Alasdair Macleod
4/19/2014
4/18/2014
4/14/2014
4/13/2014
4/13/2014
All Articles
Comment this article
You must be logged in to comment an article8000 characters max.
 
Sign in
User : Password : Login
Sign In Forgot password?
 
Receive 24hGold's Daily Market Briefing in your inbox. Go here to subscribe or unsubscribe.
Disclaimer