"The received wisdom is mistaken on how recessions are made. They are not simply caused by shocks. They are caused by a window of vulnerability in the economic cycle where the cyclical drivers of the economy have weakened to the point where it’s susceptible to a negative shock. Within that window of vulnerability, virtually any reasonable shock becomes a recessionary shock. That’s how you get a recession."
Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute, June 3, 2019
"We suspect strongly that another trigger event will shake the global financial system to its foundations, and that the Central Bankers are losing a great deal of sleep as they wonder where the Anglo-American financial hegemony has brought them. This will end badly. But it will end."
Jesse, 15 June 2008
"So you are lean and mean and resourceful, and you continue to walk on the edge of the precipice, because over the years you have become fascinated by how close you can walk without losing your balance."
Richard Nixon
"In the absence of an event, I would expect us to continue on with the status quo, the regular back and forth, wash and rinse rigging of almost every market as the pretenses and facades wear ever more thin. It is very difficult to forecast a market break. But it is quite possible to analyze the structure of the market, and to judge it to be inherently unstable and fragile. 'Prone to accidents' if you will.
The political and financial class are way out over their skis, with moral hazard and the colossal winds of hubris at their backs. It is a question of what exogenous event may trigger the next great crisis, and who will the moneyed interests try to blame."
Jesse, 3 September 2014
"Every market decline has its own specific course of events, but they do tend to have some things in common. There is generally a build up of conditions that make it the right kind of market, and then some trigger event occurs to set things in motion. It is much like what occurs in the build up to an avalanche, or a wildfire
And there are the many confrontational hotspots around the world, in the Mideast of course, in the South China Sea, and in the Ukraine among others.
I extend this watch to October, and will keep looking for changes. I do not expect much to come of this. This is just a caution, but given a trigger event of sufficient magnitude, this could become a problematic market even during the dog days of Summer. Our leadership and financial management is just that bad, reckless and irresponsible.
One thing I learned, most painfully, is that the Fed can and will keep an obvious asset bubble going much longer than one might expect, given the lack of a major trigger event. And they have absolutely demonstrated a disregard for the consequences from doing so several times in the past fifteen years."
Jesse, 1 May 2015
"Having fallen from the eternal, the evil one's desires are endless, insatiable. Having fallen from pure Being, he is driven by the desire to possess, to fill his emptiness. But the problem is insoluble, always. He is compelled to have and to hold, to possess and consume, and nothing else. All he takes, he destroys. Certainly he rules the material, as he is called the Prince of this World in the gospels."
Denis de Rougemont
As you have probably already heard the Non-Farm Payrolls report came in with a huge upside surprise this morning.
This basically popped the fantasy about the Fed's pivot to dovishness.
And so the Dollar spiked straight up and gold and silver were smacked down.
Stocks cratered and then wobbled back a bit into the close.
I published an update of the CrashTrak profile with some additional historical data this morning. You can scroll down to see it.
And then I left and spent the rest of the day with Daisy and my son. And I am very glad that I did.
It looked like the Banksters and their affiliated knuckleheads would be playing tag with the public in the American financial metaverse for the rest of the day.
And they did.
Have a pleasant weekend.
