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Japan has proved
without confusion that 0% is a permanent stuck position. The United
States will repeat the path, but with a vast
mudslide. Japan
has had the advantage of a strong industrial base, a sizeable trade surplus,
and no war budget. Thus it has been capable of funding much of its own
deficits. It does possess a big debt burden. But the US
has $1 of new debt for every $1 in government revenue. The US
war budget is almost as large as its total revenue. The US
depends upon foreign creditors, many of whom have been thoroughly alienated. Apart
from the structural and foreign angles, the US
is stuck with a 0% policy. The USFed has no Exit Strategy at their avail,
precisely what the Jackass has stated for over a year. It cannot manage
any change, as sharp knives, machetes, and guillotines await on the other
side of the monetary doorway. The present 0% road to ruin is fixed, as the
USFed cannot change course from it. This is simple to see, with eyes open and
mind turning. That excludes the majority of US economists, whose eyes are
transfixed on mindless measures like inflation expectations and whose mental
gears stopped turning years ago. They are locked in the Keynesian aberrations
within the paper money dungeon. They do not comprehend sound money. They do
not comprehend legitimate income. They do not comprehend the importance of
industry. They do not comprehend the lethal nature of debt burdens. They are
fully committed to ruin. They do show signs recently of awakening to their
helpless helm devoid of tools, even awakening to the systemic failure they
have wrought.
OBSTRUCTIONS FROM
THE 0% BOX
A rise in official
interest rate would bring about five things, and cause total wreckage
quickly. Therefore the present course will be kept, with full political
support, expressed banker urgency, reckless vigor, ample justification, and
growing desperation. The immediate fallout from moving off the present
pathway of 0% money would be a fast falling USTreasury Bond or USDollar.
Immediate effects from lifting the 0% rate:
1)
Pinprick
the USTreasury Bond bubble, loaded with too much short-term issuance
2)
Deliver
a louder death sentence to the housing market, crippled and falling again
3)
Kill
off several major banks, all of which are deeply insolvent
4)
Send
the US
stock market into a powerful bear market, even with a PPTeam
5)
Light
the fuse for a credit derivative explosion, centered upon Interest Rate Swaps.
This is not
complicated. The entire concept of an Exit Strategy has caused deep laughter
and guffaws at my desk, even louder than from Green Shoots. Nothing even
remotely could happen to permit an exit, since the system would implode.
The experts call it a Liquidity Trap. The better description is a Tight Box
with liquidity running so hard and fast that the entire foundation structure
of the castle is dissolved. The box (USEconomy) has lost so much of its
capital, such as industrial base, that it cannot walk. When a nation loses
the bulk of its industry, in particular its ability to manufacture its own
transportation vehicles, it is doomed. The US
makers of cars, trucks, trains, and airplanes are in desperate straits. Then
there is the decrepit infrastructure. The march to the Third
World is clear.
Tightly coupled
with the constriction to maintain 0% is the requirement to maintain a
semi-infinite increase to the monetary aggregate, the money supply. They
have a euphemistically name for it, called Quantitative Easing. That makes it
sound more erudite, more sophisticated, more acceptable, more impressive. But
QE is cancer, especially when fresh money is printed to cover
failed USTreasury auctions, especially when fresh money is printed to cover
interest on the USTreasury debt, especially when fresh money is printed to
cover half of the entire gargantuan budget deficit, especially when fresh
money is printed to cover the portion of the war costs not handled by
narcotics profits. The QE is cancer since zero cost money killed capital
and eliminates the process of capital formation. US
economists have a gigantic blind spot in this regard, leading to the ruin of
the nation. If truth be told, fresh money is financing most of the USGovt
debt converted to USTreasury Bonds. If truth be told, fresh money is
financing vast tranches of various types of bonds. If truth be told, fresh
money is financing most of the abandoned foreign held USAgency Mortgage Bonds.
They
dumped $57 billion worth in a single week recently.
Next comes the
long death march to the USTreasury default first forecasted in September
2008. It earned some laughter and mockery, but no more. My timetable back
then was two to three years before the inevitability was clear. That is now.
It is becoming clear. The slowness in admitting the QE2 initiative marked by
bond monetization is testament to the growing consensus among bankers that
not only will it accomplish nothing, but it risks a pinprick of the
USTreasury bubble. Calls of a gold bubble are shallow moronic
pontifications, since the sanctioned asset bubble is the mammoth USTreasury
variety. It is the last bubble before systemic failure. The big banks will
begin collapsing within a few weeks or months, from resumed property based
credit portfolio losses, or basic derivative losses tied to gold &
silver, even Interest Rate Swaps. It takes a lot of leverage and power to
keep the required 0% rate in place. The cost of money is never zero.
Leveraged losses will be catastrophic.
Doug Noland
(Prudent Bear) has eyes wide open. He perceives the presence of a USTreasury
Bond bubble. He notes the symptoms, all too clear in a serial crime of asset
bubbles puffed by the USFed. He sees the extreme danger of urgent need to
finance the bubble. It is a Black Hole that sucks most working capital and
starves the USEconomy. The ultra-low US
interest rate climate is proof positive of a systemic failure in the making.
Noland wrote, "Of course, skyrocketing bond prices have given rise to
fundamental justification. Interminable deflation risk is at the top of the
list of why bond returns will indefinitely outperform cash. I am reminded of
how technology stocks and home prices were only to go higher. My analytical
framework downplays deflation and focuses instead on a debt Bubble fueled by
the Federal Reserve, the Peoples Bank of China, the EuroCB, the Bank of
Japan, and the approaching $1 trillion year-to-date increase in global
central bank reserves. Throw in hedge fund speculator leveraging and the
billions flowing weekly (in search of any yield) into global fixed income,
and one sees all the necessary financing for a historic bubble."
An important side
effect of 0% is the promoted powerful predominant Gold bull market. The price
inflation is not near nil, as the heretical chairman of the USFed believes.
The Shadow Govt Statistics folks deal in realistic statistics. The SGS true
CPI is closer to the 5% to 7% range for a few years running. Only a
compromised fool or government stat rat bureaucrat would challenge the
veracity of John Williams and his successful quest for statistical perfection
in standard statistics. The SGS jobless rate, when people without work are
counted in the formula, stands at 22%. The Gold bull is fed and nourished
and developed since the cost of money is negative 5% to 7%, enough to fuel
speculation as well as investment exodus into precious metals. The Gold
bull will continue as long as the cost of money is negative. Investors flee
the conventional paper vehicles like stocks, bonds, and housing since the
system is failing and paper money in which values are denominated is fast
becoming meaningless. The food prices are the big alarm bell in addition to
the Gold price. Both are canaries in the coal mine. The canary is dead or
dying.
EXTREME SCATTERED
NOTES & THOUGHTS
Permit an
uncharacteristic scattered flow of notes and thoughts, considered important
on the other end of the pen near the brain stem. These are dangerous
thoughts. The tipping point to higher price inflation is uncertain and
unclear. Without a doubt, the process can flip on a dime. A USEconomic
recovery in my view, or a sincere effort to promote one, would risk pushing
past the tipping point easily, and risk hyper-inflation hitting quickly.
The Deflationist Knuckleheads have undergone a learning experience, finally
and thankfully. All things needed will cost more, while all things desired
will be valued less. The former are necessities to survive, while the latter
are derived extensions from busted asset bubbles. GOLD IS NOT A COMMODITY; IT
IS MONEY; WHEN ASSETS ARE BURNED, VALID MONEY IS KING. Most chaotic inroads
are caused by food price explosions. The US is seeing precisely that. The
killer to the USEconomy remains to be the property sector, residential
housing and commercial property. They lifted the USEconomy from 2002 to 2005,
with all the fanfare inherent to asset bubbles and public glee, helped along
by cheerleading like from Mr Magoo (err, Alan Greenspan). My ears still ring
from his high praise to off-loaded risk in sophisticated leveraged financial
instruments. These proved to be weapons of mass destruction. The greatest innovation
of bankers since 1980 still is the ATM cash dispenser.
Beware of extreme
events in hidden form. Like a bank failure. Like the friction between the
Chinese Govt and Japanese Govt. Like the lost control of the gold &
silver prices, which could reveal empty inventory vaults at the COMEX &
LBMA. Like the incorrect perception sometime by the USFed of rampant sales (a
run) of USTreasurys. Incidents in a systemic failure climate can grow out
of control, cause ripple events, and lead to a string of breakdowns much
like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
almost 100 years ago. The failure of Bank of America would qualify. Bear in
mind that the short position for gold at the COMEX & LBMA is roughly
equal to the entire earth potential of future gold mining. Bear in mind that
the short position for silver at the COMEX & LBMA is roughly equal to
twice the global annual production. A short squeeze is just around the
corner for the precious metals, better described as money in metal form.
It will cause fireworks and bank failures, maybe even clumsy attempts to
confiscate gold & silver by the wrecked USGovt. Bring it on! Nothing
would please the Jackass more than a bunch of corrupt half-blind insolvent
bank nazis trying and failing to confiscate gold, thus revealing its value at
multiples of the current artificial price levels.
Lost control is
obvious with Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, and Countrywide.
The nationalization of AIG covered up the credit derivative explosion certain
to occur, averted by virtue of the extreme hidden monetization still
underway. Hardly a virtue! The nationalization of Fannie Mae covered up the
mortgage bond market explosion and colossal fraud, averted by virtue of the
extreme hidden monetization still underway. Hardly a virtue! Liquidity is
proving to include a high degree of acidity. Fires burn bright and hot under
the USGovt wings in the fraud pits. Beware of beacon events on the horizon,
such as the QE2 Launch into oblivion, such as the Midterm 2010 election
(switch inept committee heads, gridlock amidst recession momentum), such as
the escalating trade wars. The road to the Third World involves perversion
and breakdown of the mental process, which is well along, with critical
points where instead of admitting errors, they are compounded and justified.
Stimulus, bank rescues, and bond monetization are precisely these repeated
errors.
An interesting
label has come from Muhammed El-Erian of PIMCO, who describes the New Normal
of increased fear of deflation. Hey wait! Was Mr El-Erian part of the Enron
experiment out of Harvard, with profits during the runup of the fraud, and
profits from shorting Enron all the way down into the toilet? Did he ever
check on the Enron records tucked away in Building #7 of the World Trade
Center before its demolition, err fall from structural sympathy? To me the
New Normal pertains to a broken monetary system, a Printing Pre$$ gone
amok, credit engines sputtering, chronic moribund economy, depressed labor
market, phony cost of money, where all the broken pieces are declared normal,
all the broken markets are declared normal, all the broken political parties
are declared normal, all the broken checks & balances are declared
normal.
The Keynesian
approach has been equivalent to debasement of currency on a continual basis
until the system fails. We are witnessing exactly that, with
some growing recognition. Accurate perceptions of the failure gradually are
labeled as anti-patriotic. Preservation of capital like using gold
investments is considered anti-patriotic. Soon the USGovt great grab will
seize private pension funds in order to feed the USTreasury bubble. Soon the
USGovt great grab will seize bank certificates of deposit in order to feed
the USTreasury bubble. Resistance will be taxed heavily, punitively, and
declared anti-patriotic. Since the bloody coup d'etat that came on 911, the
nation has been forced to deal with a Syndicate running the nation in name
and deed. The concept of anti-Syndicate has been equated with anti-Patriotic
in a clever deft maneuver. It will not work. The people are awakening,
confused still, but growing wiser. There are new harvestings of civil
liberties taking place every day, mostly in the name of national security,
but also in the name of restoring order, and in the prevention of collapse.
Within the confusing collage are letters that read CENTRAL BANKS FAILED.
Central bankers in the Western nations are scared witless of systemic failure
and monetary system collapse. Their Stress Tests, both in the United States
and Europe, have been thoroughly discredited. The manage over a ruined
landscape. Further details on the widely occurring systemic failure are
covered in the September Hat Trick Letter.
BEGGAR THY
NEIGHBOR, INFLATE AT HOME
The USDollar
should devalue sharply, but other major currencies are equally crippled. The
date of September 21st of 2010 will be remembered as a day of infamy, just
like March 15th of 2009, when the first QE Launch was announced. At the FOMC
meeting on Tuesday this week, a critical juncture was passed. The USFed
confirmed what it strongly hinted last month. They are officially willing to
ease monetary policy further to spur growth and support prices. Later they
will expand their balance sheet, like with another $2 trillion in wrecked
securities. The USFed is the ultimate Bad Bank, soon to become a Worse Bank,
then later a Dead Bank. The statement read, "The committee will
continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is
prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the
economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent
with its mandate." That is a green light for QE2, when the need
grows urgent, like the day after tomorrow. Nonsense about price inflation was
stated as justification. Background conditions of high jobless rate are
painfully true, although it is more than twice the official rate.
Gold rose quickly
on the news to a record high, then extended the high on Wednesday.
Speculation is ripe, and very correctly on the mark, that the USFed will
purchase additional USGovt securities in coming months in a bid to grease the
system with a torrent of liquidity. They risk eventual hyper-inflation
without the realization. They risk global rejection of the USDollar. They
risk global sales of USTreasurys that might outpace the USGovt ability to
monetize and purchase what foreigners sell. They risk lost integrity of the
central banks. Behold the quick response in the Gold price to the anticipated
QE2 imminent launch admission, in the next two hours. It is a launch into icy
waters strewn with icebergs and a certain fate of systemic plunge to the depths,
a watery grave. USFed Chairman Bernanke must have regularly stained skivvies
from knowing that $2 to $3 trillion in zero cost money thrown at bond
redemptions, banker welfare, corporate rescues, and stimulus fixed nothing.
Notice the sudden afternoon jump in the gold price. The $1300 price is just
around the corner.
GOLD TO THE MOON
The end of
September will form a launching pad for the gold & silver prices. The
gold cartel, mainly eight major world banks, have monstrous short positions
in need of covering. A short squeeze has begun in earnest. A big bank failure
is just a matter of time. The September Hat Trick Letter identifies the
primary candidates among the big banks for failure and bankruptcy
dissolution. Egon Von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Mgmt provides solid
arguments for three firm gold price targets at $6000, $7000 and $10,000.
These are reasonable future targets, each justified, good rational arguments
made. He cites the 24-fold rise from $35 per ounce to $850 witnessed from
1971 to 1980 in the last cycle, where it was released from a controlled
setting. It could happen again, as control is lost, sending gold to
$6000. He applies a correct price inflation adjustment to the past $850
peak price, using the Shadow Govt statistics, to arrive at a $7000 past
peak target. He recalls an historical 25% of total market capitalization
attributed to gold and mining shares. If that ratio were reached in
financial assets once again, gold would need to rise to $31,000 per
ounce. Factor in a powerful 65% bear market in stocks from current levels,
and one arrives at a $10,000 gold price. Thus the three historical
comparisons offer potential targets for the gold price anywhere between $6000
and $10,000. Futhermore, the Von Greyerz targets assume no additional deep
erosion in money standards from price inflation, or even the highly likely
hyper-inflation. We will see bigtime price inflation, hence his conservative
approach. See
the Gold Switzerland article (CLICK HERE).
As long as the
current central bankers are in charge, the potential Gold price on this
long-term bull market has almost no limit. The power center
in charge is tied to the Syndicate, which will not order bank asset liquidation,
since a death sentence. That is the first requirement for remedy. It will
never happen. The monetary system required a tangible core for stability,
realism, and counter-balance. Only gold would serve the role. It will never
happen. Instead of investment in a new and better global mousetrap, the
broken one will receive unlimited funds for reinforcement, not new design.
The investment in failure described in a recent public article has prevailed
and flourished. Thus, the upward pressure on the Gold price is unlimited. As
money is wasted, the major currencies are rapidly undermined. As the
government deficits continue in hemorrhage, the sovereign bonds are rapidly
undermined. Gold is an investment in survival. It is an investment in a vote
of no confidence. It is the ultimate safe haven in an increasingly dangerous
world. The Gold price is going to the moon, at least $3000 per ounce. The
silver price is going to the moon, at least $80 per ounce. Just give it time.
Like a beautiful Costa Rican orchid, they just need water and sunlight. The
water is the vast liquidity spread mindlessly by architects of ruin. The
sunlight is the awareness of a broken system, and awareness of the legitimacy
of Gold & Silver.
SUNSET OF ROUBINI
IN A CLOWN SUIT
New York University
Professor Nouriel Roubini was once a truly fine economist and analyst. From
2003 to 2006 he was brilliant in his dire warnings of USEconomic breakdown
and housing market collapse. In the last year, Roubini has either been taking
a steady diet of stupid pills or has been transformed into a tool by his Wall
Street clients, the payoff too good to pass up. My view is the latter being
the case. Roubini has morphed into an economist cut from substandard cloth
who simply does not understand gold, period. Roubini expects a short-term
selloff in gold. He was correct last december 2009, in his similar call.
Methinks this time, he has been hired by desperate men for a paid call.
Either the man has turned into a harlot or transformed into an idiot. He has
never favored gold. He makes some curious, if not moronic points in
criticism. He wrote, "September may be a good month to take partial
or full profits for an investor with a long gold position. Alternatively an
interested investor could buy December put options. Investors should thus be
wary of getting the gold bug and being stuck with this barbarous relic. The
recent swings in gold price, up 10% one month, down 10% the next, prove
the point that gold has little intrinsic value and that most of its
price movements are based on beliefs and bubbles. As an insurance policy
against the tail risk of eventual inflation, it may be useful to hold a small
amount of gold in one’s portfolio, but stocking up portfolios with a
fiat currency that has marginal practical use, a zero nominal interest rate,
high storage costs, and the price of which is subject to volatile whims and
bubbles is totally irrational... Unlike other commodities, it has little
intrinsic value. Much like a fiat currency, gold's value is based largely
on the irrational beliefs of investors. In a depression or near
depression, one would be better off stockpiling canned food and other
commodities like oil that are useful for riding out Armageddon. You
cannot eat gold or burn gold." What a truck load of shoddy analysis!!
One must wonder
if Roubini has noticed that the banking system lacks capital, since the
primary reserves have been bond based, as in debt. Gold serves as excellent
bank ballast in stormy times. One might assume that ship captains at sea
should discard their dead weight in ballast. He failed to observe that if the
big banks were in possession of gold in reserves, they would not have turned
insolvent during the gold price advance. Gold capital gains are enormous.
Bond principal losses greatly overshadow their yields. Besides, Warren Buffet
proved that gold & silver offer a yield, as in writing call options. He
is seriously off the mark and off his game, exhibiting extremely shallow
depth. The irrational beliefs pertain more to stock and bond prices, one
might easily conclude in the current environment with the grand USTreasury
Bond bubble. The European sovereign debt crisis drove that point home rather
vividly and thoroughly. Maybe Nouriel was at a Wall Street luncheon when that
occurred, since the shaking of bond confidence serves as a major motive to
own gold in the past several months.
Conditions are
very different now versus December 2009, when he was correct in his
anticipation of a gold price correction. What followed was a 14% to 15% price
correction, then a long consolidation. He does not detect the benefit from
the consolidation phase and return to crisis, thus the fertile ground for the
next major gold price advance. Roubini must not observe that nothing has
been remedied, no reform enacted, no restructure accomplished, but much more
money wasted. His style of rear view mirror forecasting is a Moron's
Pursuit, a shabby statistician practice. This time around, the gold seasons
work against his new hack gold forecast. Last December, the strong season was
coming to an end. This September, the strong season is beginning. The big
runup in the gold price will crush the shorts and shatter the reputations of
analysts like Roubini. His negative bearish call goes against the teeth of
the typical strong months of September through January, when last year the
gold price rose from $950 to $1225. In the autumn of 2008, the gold price
rose from $720 to $1000. What a limited awareness he has of the strong gold
season. He does not comprehend gold, and should not comment upon it. Stick to
the economic analysis!
Enter the second
mindless Roubini call concerning gold. Nouriel Roubini is on record with a
position that the USDollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss Franc may be a
better investment than gold, if the global economy suffers recession. What an
incredibly block-headed analytic viewpoint. A recession comes, then all major
currencies will be undermined by excessive deficits and the response in
monetary stimulus. Gold will thrive versus the major currencies, suddenly
in much greater supply. This is simple Supply & Demand. He said, "If
there was a double dip recession, increasing risk aversion, some assets are
going to be preferred, and gold will be one of them. But in that situation,
things like the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc have more upside in a
situation of rising risk aversion because they are much more liquid than the
gold market. I believe that gold is going to trade around current levels.
There are two extreme events that lead to a spike in gold. One is inflation,
but we have no inflation in advanced economies. If anything, there is a risk
of deflation. The other event in which gold prices go up is the risk of a
global financial meltdown, and that tail risk has been reduced because we backstopped
the financial system."
Roubini fails to
recognize that the so-called backstop is nothing but impaired bond
redemption, investment in failed gigantic financial firms, and countless liquidity
facilities. The backstop is fashioned from the same sovereign bonds being
attacked. The central bankers have whacked off their own legs with their own
swords. When the backstop proves inadequate, the gold price will respond
with great gusto and power, enough to capture global attention. He fails
to comprehend that the device enabling the requisite monetary flow is from
dubious sources, namely the Printing Pre$$. Erosion of the USDollar is in
high gear, but also for other major currencies, thus the entire monetary
system. Gold responds with price rises versus such debased currencies, maybe
uniformly. Nouriel seems ignorant of the monetary system. Moreover, the US
stock market has seen 20 consecutive weeks of profound money exit flows.
Maybe Nouriel does not monitor capital flows. It is called the Competing
Currency War, something Nouriel must have read about. Next, in response to
the USFed sponsored QE2 Launch, watch for Europe to announce a similar
initiative. After all, they do NOT want the rising Euro currency to
torpedo the strong German export trade. Some call this retaliatory gesture
beggar thy neighbor. Money is being debauched, debased, and destroyed at a
pace not seen in decades, maybe half a century. And Roubini believes the
major currencies will outperform Gold in the spirited climate of a monetary
flood sequence. Truly clueless! The heavy reliance upon the monetary engines
toward empty output reduce the value of money itself, thus lift the gold
price.
ULTIMATE MONETARY
TRUTH
Roubini simply
does not comprehend gold. He does not comprehend its role
as a reserve asset, nor the extreme attack to the integrity of sovereign
debt, which supports the major currencies. Investors are rushing in pursuit
of securities considered the most secure in a slowdown, as evidence mounts
that the USEconomy has run out of momentum in its contrived rebound without
remedy, reform, or restructure. Roubini does not comprehend the monetary
system versus an anchor, either implied or direct, as in the gold anchor. The
monetary high truth demands a value of the global reserve currency versus
true money, whether sanctioned and blessed by the Ideological High Priests or
simply implied. Gold and crude oil, even housing, have filled the implied
gap for decades. They are called inflation hedges. These priests are
heretics. Roubini cites US recession statistics and concepts with the best in
his class, but he fails to link the official policy actions to a detrimental
effect on the monetary and currency systems. The winner from the approach
pattern to systemic failure is gold & silver.
The USFed is on
the verge of embarking on QE2, as the USEconomy slides into a dangerous
recession, while the banks are vulnerable to another powerful round of
profound losses. Some big US banks are soon to go bust. Roubini appears to
have suffered a brain lapse, or just brain cramps. Demands for interviews on
the monetary system by Nouriel might be non-existent after gold gains extend
in impressive fashion. Demands for interviews on gold by Nouriel will come,
but asking main questions of where he went wrong!!
Jim Willie CB
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