Polarization of Germany in Pictures: Polls Move in Entirely Predictable Pattern

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Greens Cheer September 29

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AfD Cheers October 1

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I have been watching this pattern for many weeks and no one seems to have caught on. This next image will explain.

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AfD Spread Over Greens - Last 6 INSA Polls

• 3.5
• 3.0
• 4.5
• 3.5
• 1.0
• 2.5

Greens Spread Over AfD - Last 6 Forza Polls

• 2.5
• 1.5
• 3.0
• 1.5
• 2.5
• 1.5

​Now that the INSA poll is out of the way, it's pretty clear the Greens turn to cheer will soon happen again.

Demise of the Grand Coalition

Meanwhile note that support for the Union (CDU/CSU) "Grand Coalition" is slowly sinking into the sunset.

Support is at a new record low in the last two polls

The lead image shows the overall pattern.

Coalition Outlook

If there was an election today, the Grand Coalition would not have a chance according to any recent poll.

Even the Jamaica coalition, named after colors in the Jamaica flag (black, yellow, green), might not gather, or barely gather, the required 50%.

INSA has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26 + 10 + 14.5 = 50.5.

Civey has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26.7 + 8.6 + 15.7 = 51.0.

How long could such a three-way coalition last, assuming it got off the ground in the first place?