Italy Votes No, Renzi Resigns – Potential “Systemic Crisis In Eurozone”
Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has said he will officially resign Monday, after voters apparently rejected his proposals for constitutional reform. What should investors keep an eye out for after his defeat?
Although the referendum on Sunday was officially on Renzi’s plan for legislative overhaul, it was widely seen in Italy as a vote of confidence in the prime minister and his government. In voting “no” — projections suggest 59% of those in the ballot made that choice — the Italians have set the stage for an early election and perhaps given local populist parties the chance to deliver a Brexit- or Trump-style shake-up.
But if the political uncertainty lasts, the fallout from the vote could have an effect not only within Italy — on its already embattled banks, for instance — but also beyond the borders of the boot-shaped country.
The problems in Italy could — in theory — “spark a systemic crisis in the eurozone,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, in a recent note.
A “protracted period of political uncertainty after a ‘no’ vote could exacerbate the Italian banking issues, unsettle the Italian bond market and weigh on business and consumer confidence,” he said.
Over recent weeks, the spread between Italian and German 10-year government-bond yields has reached a two-year high, according to Dow Jones Newswires. That has been interpreted by some as a sign that the eurozone is at risk of a breakaway.
Even though markets have been anticipating a “no” vote in Italy, Italian sovereigns bond yields may continue to surge as investors will ask higher return for their risk…”
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